Best Picture Power Rankings: Week Four

1. The Artist (NO CHANGE)
It's the undeniable frontrunner, but I firmly believe it will "only" be the critics' darling. I just have a feeling this race is going to get very crazy going down the stretch. But it leads Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, and has a nice helping of SAG nods.

2. The Descendants (UP ONE)
The Globes come up waving Alexander Payne's banner. It could be a big year for him once we get out of the critics.

3. The Help (UP ONE)
It scored the most of any film at the SAGs (don't underestimate that voting body), and matched that with four Globes nods.

4. Hugo (UP ONE)
It tied The Artist for most Critics Choice awards, and I can see it running off with the Best Picture and/or Best Director Golden Globe. Voters are gonna go with their heart on this one.

5. War Horse (DOWN THREE)
I have no doubt it's getting in. But a semi-weak showing at the Globes -- no directing nod for Spielberg, no screenplay mention -- means it might not be the late-season power player. Or, that could just be the Globes being weird.

6. Midnight in Paris (UP THREE)
Oh yeah. Nothing makes me happier than seeing Midnight in Paris grabbing SAG Ensemble mentions and Golden Globe nominations for Woody Allen in director and screenplay. Like Hugo, voters are going to respond to it in an emotional kind of way.

7. Moneyball (DOWN ONE)
It's being very quiet out there, with a mention of Brad Pitt here, a screenplay nomination there. It got nominated for Best Picture at the Globes, even though it's very possible it could just be nominated for Pitt and the screenplay at the Oscars. Maybe it's my own blind love for this movie, but I still see it sticking the finish.

8. The Tree of Life (UP THREE)
There's just something about The Tree of Life I keep coming back to. It's definitely more of a critics' movie than an Academy movie, but is it "too big to ignore" -- not in the blockbuster way, but in a different kind of "event movie" way? People who are passionate about it are very passionate, and it could earn enough No. 1 votes to sneak in. Maybe.

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (DOWN TWO)
Completely shut-out from the Golden Globes, eh? That doesn't bode well for your Oscar chances, mates. Even The Reader had Globe nominations.

10. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (BACK)
I know it doesn't have a great chance, but I needed a reason to knock off Harry Potter.

Off the list: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2; Beginners

They try so hard! - Golden Globes response

The Globes want so hard to seem relevant, especially after last year when they were openly mocked by their own host for nominating The Tourist, among other awful decisions. And yet, they brought that same host back. While I've stopped believing the Globes are good for determining who will win the Oscar -- winner of the BP Globe has won the Oscar only once since 2004 -- it's about finding similarities. If many groups are nominating the same people, that's who you bet on for the Oscar.

So here are a few "Huzzahs!" and "Boos!" about this year's nominees. You can read the list in the post below. These are in no particular order; just the order I thought them in.

Harry Potter is dead. No Ensemble nod at the SAG. No Picture nod from the Critics Choice. No screenplay nods, no directing nods. Warners might still try to funnel energy into this campaign, but it's not happening. No one really cares about the franchise in the awards circuit. Besides, they already have a "kids" movie, and it's called Hugo. And it's better.

What's up with Melissa McCarthy? The Globes nommed Bridesmaids for Picture and Wiig for Actress, but the scene-stealing supporting role goes without a mention. The same week, she gets nominated for Critics Choice and SAG awards. She's quite the big question mark as far as the Oscars are concerned.

George Clooney's winning a Golden Globe. The man got four nominations. Producing, directing, and co-writing The Ides of March, and acting in The Descendants. If that's not proof that the Globes want stars to feel loved, I don't know what is. Oh yeah, Ryan Gosling got a Best Actor nod for Crazy, Stupid Love. I really like that movie, but c'mon guys. C'mon.

Hugo is coming. I still can't believe how well it's doing. Usually movies that I feel strongly about either don't play in the big game, or are minor players. Hugo is poised to go toe-to-toe with The Artist at the Critics Choice and the Globes. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if HFPA gives Marty another statue. They love him a lot more than the Academy.

Swinton and Mara are wild cards. Because Michelle Williams was in "Comedy" at the Globes, both Rooney Mara and Tilda Swinton got in "Drama Actress." I suspect only one will make it to the Oscar ballot in that fifth slot. Game on. Also, there's that whole Charlize Theron thing to worry about -- will the Academy care at all for "Young Adult"?

Thanks, Globes, for Viggo. For some reason, no one else has nominated Viggo Mortensen for Best Supporting Actor. So, if nothing else, I really like the Globes for this. It's one of the best performances anyone gave all year, in my book. Especially as a supporting role to Fassbender's Jung.

Midnight in Paris makes its case. With a SAG Ensemble nod and four Globes nods including Picture, Director, and Screenplay, Woody Allen's best movie in twenty years has its cards on the table. It will either just make the race in the Oscars or get shut out entirely.

Extremely Loud is on mute. Even though I haven't seen it, I have no desire to. Completely shut out at the Globes, only a few nods at the Critics Choice (even if one was a Best Picture), it definitely takes a tumble. Of course, the Academy loves Stephen Daldry for reasons unknown. So I'm not totally basking in this shut-out just yet.

Tinker is nowhere. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is one of the best reviewed movies of the year, so why no Globes love? Why no love from virtually anywhere? Will Gary Oldman even get an Oscar nomination at this rate? Color me confused.

'Descendants,' 'Artist' stand tall in Globes noms

Best Picture, Drama

The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Carnage
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn

Best Director

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
George Clooney for The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo

Best Actress, Drama

Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Rooney Mara in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Actor, Drama

George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardio DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

Best Actress, Comedy

Jodie Foster in Carnage
Charlize Theron in Young Adult
Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet in Carnage

Best Actor, Comedy

Jean DuJardin in The Artist
Brendan Gleeson in The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50
Ryan Gosling in Crazy, Stupid, Love.
Owen Wilson in Midnight in Paris       

Best Screenplay

Midnight in Paris
The Ides of March
The Artist
The Descendants
Moneyball

Best Foreign Language Film

A Separation (Iran)
The Flowers of War (China)
The Kid With a Bike (Belgium)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (USA)
The Skin I Live In (Spain)     

Best Original Score

The Artist
W.E.
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse

Best Animated Feature

The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Best Original Song

"Hello Hello" from Gnomeo and Juliet
"Lay Your Head Down" from Albert Nobbs
"The Living Proof" from The Help
"The Keeper" from Machine Gun Preacher
"Masterpiece" from W.E.       

Nomination Leaders

6 - The Artist
5 - The Descendants
4 - The Ides of March, Midnight in Paris, The Help, Moneyball 

Toronto Film Critics pick 'Tree of Life'

Toronto Film Critics Best of 2011

Best Picture: The Tree of Life
Best Director: Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life
Best Actor: Michael Shannon in Take Shelter
Best Actress: Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain in Take Shelter
Best Screenplay: Moneyball
Best Foreign-Language Film: Mysteries of Lisbon
Best Documentary Feature: Nostalgia for the Light
Best First Feature: Attack the Block
Best Animated Feature: The Adventures of Tintin

'The Help' leads SAG nominees

Screen Actors Guild Award Nominees

Best Ensemble

The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris

Best Actor, Lead Role

Demian Bichir in A Better Life
George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

Best Actress, Lead Role

Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin 
Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn

Best Actor, Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn
Armie Hammer in J. Edgar
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Best Actress, Supporting Role

Berenice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help       

'Artist,' 'Hugo' continue to rise in BFCA noms

Critics Choice Award Nominees 2011

Best Picture

The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

L.A. critics honor 'Descendants,' Malick

Los Angeles Film Critics Association 2011
Best Picture: The Descendants
Best Director: Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life
Best Actor: Michael Fassbender in Shame, A Dangerous Method, X-men: First Class and Jane Eyre
Best Actress: Yun Jung-hee in Poetry
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain in Coriolanus, The Debt, The Help, Texas Killing Fields, Tree of Life
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Best Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi for A Separation
Best Music: Hanna
Best Production Design: Dante Ferretti for Hugo
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree of Life
Best Documentary: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Best Animation: Rango 

NYFCO joins 'Artist' parade

New York Film Critics Online Best of 2011

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Best Actor: Michael Shannon in Take Shalter
Best Actress: Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Best Ensemble Cast: Bridesmaids
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks in Drive
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Breakthrough Performer: Jessica Chastain
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree of Life
Best Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants
Best Use of Music: Ludovic Bource for The Artist
Best Debut Director: Joe Cornish for Attack the Block
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Documentary: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Best Animated Feature: The Adventures of Tintin 

Boston chooses 'Artist'

Boston Film Critics Association Best of 2011

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Best Actor: Brad Pitt in Moneyball
Best Actress: Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks in Drive 
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Best Ensemble: Carnage
Best Screenplay: Moneyball
Best Use of Music: (TIE) Drive and The Artist
Best Editing: The Clock
Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life
Best New Filmmaker: Sean Durkin for Martha Marcy May Marlene
Best Documentary: Project Nim
Best Foreign Film: Incendies

AFI Top Ten

American Film Institute Top Ten of 2011

Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
J. Edgar
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
 

Best Picture Power Rankings: Week Three

Admittedly, not much happened this week, and a LOT is happening next week. But in the sake of being devoted to constantly updating, here are some minor shifts in thought:

1. The Artist (NO CHANGE)
It hasn't slowed down.

2. War Horse (UP THREE)
More reviews suggest this is going to run wild at the major shows. If the Globes go ga-ga for it, it's sticking around.

3. The Descendants (DOWN ONE)
It'll be interesting to see how the BFCA, HFPA, and others nominate the movie. Somehow I suspect it could go lukewarm as a major player.

4. The Help (NO CHANGE)
A well-timed DVD release reminds everyone what a heartwarming movie it is, and why movies about white people helping marginalized people always score big.

5. Hugo (DOWN TWO)
The critics seem to really like it, but the box office is not big. Is there not as much traction as we'd like to believe? Will people simply vote for The Artist instead (since they're both movies-about-movies)?

6. Moneyball (NO CHANGE)
I'm dying to see how the Golden Globes receive it.

7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (UP TWO)
I know no one's seen it yet, and I keep bumping it around, and it looks terrible to me -- but I just can't come up with a reason why it won't do well.

8. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (DOWN ONE)
The only thing on this list with any kind of big box office status. That counts for something.

9. Midnight in Paris (UP ONE)
It's going to gain some steam in the next week. Just watch.

10. Beginners (UP ONE)
More top ten mentions = better chances.

11. The Tree of Life (DOWN THREE)
As much as I want to believe it will get in, I need more convincing.

Cahiers du Cinema Top 10

1. The Strange Case of Angelica (Manoel de Oliviera)
2. We Have a Pope (Nanni Moretti)
3. House of Tolerance (Bertrand Bonello)
4. Melancholia (Lars von Trier)
5. Super 8 (J.J. Abrams)
6. Essential Killing (Jerzy Skolimowski)
7. Outside Satan (Bruno Dumont)
8. A Burning Hot Summer (Philippe Garrel)
9. The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick)
10. Meek's Cutoff (Kelly Reichardt)

D.C. does 'The Artist'

Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics Association 2011 Winners

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Best Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants
Best Actress: Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks in Drive
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Help
Best Ensemble: Bridesmaids
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne and Nate Faxon & Jim Rash for The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Will Reiser for 50/50
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Documentary: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Best Foreign Language Film: The Skin I Live In
Best Art Direction Hugo (Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Sciavo)
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Best Score: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
 

'Melancholia' tops European Film Awards

 

Best Film: Melancholia
Best Director: Susanne Bier for In a Better World
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
Best Actor: Colin Firth in The King's Speech
Best Screenwriter: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for The Kid With a Bike
Best Cinematographer: Manuel Alberto Claro for Melancholia
Best Editor: Tariq Anwar for The King's Speech
Best Production Designer: Jette Lehmann for Melancholia
Best Composer: Ludovic Bource for The Artist
Best Documentary: Pina
Best Animated Film: Chico & Rita

'War Horse,' 'Drive' lead Golden Satellite Nominations

"Drive" and "War Horse" make a mini wave with 7. "The Descendants," "The Artist," "The Help" each have 6. The International Press Academy has no real clout as far as the Oscar is concerned, but this is the first time we can see a full nominee slate from any kind of legitimate organization.

Best Picture

The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
Shame
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse

Best Picture Power Rankings: Week Two

1. The Artist (NO CHANGE)
Best Picture, Director wins from the NYFCC keep it high atop the potential nominees. When I saw it earlier this week, my screening full of old people went absolutely wild for it. That bodes well for Oscar voting types.

2. The Descendants (NO CHANGE)
NBR gives it love in the form of Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress wins. It could very well win LAFCA next week; they love Alexander Payne. It's definitely a part of the conversation.

3. Hugo (UP FOUR)
National Board of Review gives it Best Picture and Best Director. If more people rally around it for its very personal vision (and for Scorsese's good name) it could stay in the game in a major way.

4. The Help (DOWN ONE)
Finally saw it, and it's exactly the kind of movie the Oscars will love. Historical, upbeat, plays to our heartstrings -- oh yeah, this one will get a Picture nod unless it just disappears in the circuit.

5. War Horse (NO CHANGE)
As more and more reviews leak, the consensus seems to be it's both beautiful and sentimental. The Christmas release still makes it a great unknown as far as the rankings are concerned, and it probably won't be a player on the critics' circuit, but Golden Globes could be a potent place for it to strike.

6. Moneyball (DOWN TWO)
I'm still convinced it will get nominated, but the NYFCC awards make another possibility surface: Could they award Brad Pitt and not the film? Will the praise for the film as a whole coalesce around praise for Pitt?

7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (UP TWO)
The NBR put it on their Top 10 list, which isn't really an indication of anything. The critics may not recognize it for anything. The Globes might ignore it, BUT if the Critics Choice boosts it, it could be a sign that Warner's massive ad campaign is starting to work.

8. The Tree of Life (UP TWO)
I have a feeling that even though this film isn't going to end up winning anything at the Oscars, it's going to stay in the conversation. It's obviously a film people are passionate about, and almost everyone else respects.

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (DOWN THREE)
Because no one's seen it yet, no one knows what to make of it. Still a player.

10. Midnight in Paris (DOWN TWO)
Is Woody's film simply too small? It needs a big vocal supporter beyond the Spirit Awards.

11. Beginners (NEW)
It tied for Best Picture at the Gothams, earned a good handful of Spirit nods, and scored a spot on NBR's best independent features list. While most see Plummer as the film's default nomination, it could groundswell very easily.

Off the List: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

NBR names "Hugo" best of the year

Might I just say I'm thoroughly happy with this. Love for great performers and great movies. Especially the win for Swinton and the director win for Scorsese.

National Board of Review 2011

Best Picture: Hugo
Best Director: Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Best Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley in The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Will Reiser for 50/50
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash for The Descendants
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Breakthrough Performance: Felicity Jones in Like Crazy and Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Debut Director: J.C. Candor for Margin Call
Best Ensemble: The Help
Spotlight Award: Michael Fassbender
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: The Harry Potter franchise

Top Eleven Films

The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Hugo
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Top Five Foreign Language Films

13 Assassins
Elite Squad: The Enemy Within
Footnote
Le Havre
Point Blank

Top Five Documentaries

Born to be Wild
Buck
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna

Top Ten Independent Films

50/50
Another Earth
Beginners
A Better Life
Cedar Rapids
Margin Call
Shame
Take Shelter
We Need to Talk About Kevin
Win Win         

New York honors 'Artist,' 'Moneyball'

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Best Screenplay: Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin for Moneyball
Best Actor: Brad Pitt in Moneyball & The Tree of Life
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks in Drive
Best Actress: Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain in The Tree of Life, The Help, & Take Shelter
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree of Life
Best First Feature: Margin Call (directed and written by J.C. Chandor)
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Nonfiction Film: The Cave of Forgotten Dreams

Independent Spirit Award Nominees

With big helpings of love for Beginners, Drive, The Artist, The Descendants, and Take Shelter, it seems like this year more than most, the independents could already be a force to be reckoned with right out of the gate. Can they survive the gauntlet to Oscar? A storm is brewing.

Best Picture

50/50
Beginners
Drive
Take Shelter
The Artist
The Descendants

Best Director

Mike Mills, Beginners
Nicholas Winding Refn, Drive
Jeff Nichols, Take Shelter
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants

'Tree of Life' tops Sight and Sound Top 10(ish)

Each year, Sight and Sound magazine polls roughly 100 critics worldwide for their Top 10 lists. It's arguably the most comprehensive global list. According to Guy Lodge at In Contention, Tree of Life won by a sizable margin.

1. The Tree of Life (Terrance Malick)
2. A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)
3. The Kid With a Bike (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne)
4. Melancholia (Lars von Trier)
5. The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
6. (tie) Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Nuri Bilge Ceylan)
6. (tie) The Turin Horse (Bela Tarr)
8. We Need to Talk About Kevin (Lynne Ramsay)
9. Le Quattro Volte (Michelangelo Frammartino)
10. (tie) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Tomas Alfredson)
10. (tie) This is Not a Film (Jafar Panahi and Mojtaba Mirtahmash)

2011 Gotham Award Winners

Gotham edges out New York Film Critics Circle by one day. The independent film award officially kickstarts the season. And what a way to begin.

Best Feature: (TIE) The Tree of Life and Beginners
Best Ensemble: Beginners
Best Documentary: Better This World
Breakthrough Director: Dee Rees for Pariah
Breakthrough Actor: Felicity Jones for Like Crazy
Audience Award: Girlfriend
Best Film Not Playing in a Theatre Near You: Scenes of a Crime

The Best Picture Power Rankings: Week One

The game is a-foot! With no frontrunner and no idea of how many films will actually be nominated for Best Picture this year (you're so tricky, Academy), this first round of Best Picture power rankings has a hint of surprise and uncertainty that I'm really excited about. Reading over last year's Power Rankings, I had 7/10 nominees pegged at this time last year, and all 10 figured out by the Golden Globe nominations (with Social Network and King's Speech at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively). Despite some craziness with those two films, it made for an overall unpredictable year. Here's hoping this year stays crazy.

Emmys breakdown

I kind of loathe the Television Academy, because they pick the same stuff year in and year out, they nominate the same people, and they make predicting their shows very, very hard. I usually suck at predicting the Emmys, but as I can't see an awards show without tossing my hat into the ring, let's do this thing.

Comedy categories


Best Comedy Series

Glee (FOX)
Parks and Recreation (NBC)
The Office (NBC)
Modern Family (ABC)
30 Rock (NBC)
What goes down: 30 Rock won this award three years in a row, until Modern Family broke through last year and seized the award on a whirl of acting and writing nominations. The Office is a stand-by nominee in this category; don't look for it to win this year. If Glee couldn't win in its freshman season, the uneven sophomore effort surely can't close the deal. Parks and Recreation is under-the-radar in its first nomination here, but Modern Family will retain the title belt.

Best Actor, Comedy

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Steve Carell, The Office
Louis C.K., Louie
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
What goes down: Perennial favorite Alec Baldwin got ousted by Jim Parsons last year. Louis C.K. is doing arguably the most adventurous comedic role on television, but it's a bit too dark for this award. Steve Carell, on the other hand, has been nominated for this role six times, and hasn't won it once. Until now.

Best Actress, Comedy

Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
What goes down: This should be a more interesting category than it is, with the sharp division between basic network stars and premium cable shows. Emmy favorite Edie Falco will win for the second year in a row, barring an unseen wave of adulation for Amy Poehler.

Best Supporting Actor, Comedy Series

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
What goes down: Stonestreet won this last year, but how can you possibly choose one of the four Modern Family guys? If Glee's second season had a strong point, it was Chris Colfer, who got a majority of big dramatic moments, singing opportunities, and well-rounded comedy. He scoops it.

Best Supporting Actress, Comedy Series

Jane Lynch, Glee
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
What goes down: Betty White doesn't get this on a sympathy vote, like at the SAG awards. Jane Lynch won last year, but her role in Glee was downplayed significantly this season. It's tight between SNL's Wiig and Family's Sofia Vergara, but the in-house love of Modern Family pushes her over the edge.

Best Directing, Comedy Series

There's no Glee here, but there are three Modern Family mentions.  The show wins it, and I'll go out on a limb and randomly say they win for the episode, "Slow Down Your Neighbors."

Best Writing, Comedy Series

Louis C.K. is poised to get a big win here, especially if the Academy wants to award him and Steve Carell. Look for Louie to get a shocking mini-upset.

Drama Categories


Best Series, Drama

Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Dexter (SHO)
Friday Night Lights (NBC)
Mad Men (AMC)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
The Good Wife (CBS)
What goes down: HBO wants this award back so very, very badly. After The Sopranos picked it up in 2007, it's been nothing but Mad Men for three straight years. And even if the fourth season plunged into deeper territory for Jon Hamm and the SCDP crew, the Box Office has a gritty period drama and a ballsy fantasy epic on slate. Vying for Scorsese's love and trending on the Globes win, the Emmy goes from basic cable back to premium. Boardwalk Empire squeezes a very tight win.

Best Actor, Drama

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Hugh Laurie, House
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Timothy Olyphant, Justified
What goes down: These guys can breathe easy: Bryan Cranston didn't have to act this year with Breaking Bad on hiatus, so now someone else can finally win. "The Suitcase" -- arguably Hamm's best work on Men -- is enough to finally win the show an acting Emmy. But not so fast. There's this Steve Buscemi guy, and he's got a showier role and a more storied history. The Mad Men curse stays strong.

Best Actress, Drama

Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Mireille Enos, The Killing
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
What goes down: Julianna Margulies lost out to Kyra Sedgwick last year, but the popular CBS drama gets a crowning win this time.

Best Supporting Actor, Drama

Andre Baugher, Men of a Certain Age
Walton Goggins, Justified
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
John Slattery, Mad Men
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
What goes down: Fantasy may not be everyone's cup of tea, and the show may have no other acting nods, but Peter Dinklage should be considered a lock. In a fantasy world, Walter Goggins is an acceptable alternative.

Best Supporting Actress, Drama

Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Michelle Forbes, The Killing
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Margo Martindale, Justified
What goes down: Despite the obvious love this Academy has for The Good Wife, F/X's Justified is making a gradual impression (with its three major acting nods), and Margo Martindale takes this as an award for the show.

Best Directing, Drama Series

How can you not want to vote for Martin Scorsese's Boardwalk Empire pilot?

Best Writing, Drama Series

I may not think Mad Men is on its way to a fourth-year stampede, but "The Suitcase" might be the most well-written episode of the whole show. It takes this easily.


Reality

Best Variety, Comedy, or Musical Series
Comedy Central's The Daily Show with Jon Stewart has a monopolistic hold on this category that's not going anywhere.

Best Reality Competition Program
 You'd be foolish not to bet on The Amazing Race.

Best Writing, Variety/Comedy Series

It's a tight one, but The Daily Show edges out fellow Comedy Central partner Colbert Report on the strength of their summer shows.

TV Miniseries/Movie

Best TV Miniseries or Movie

HBO is despised for owning these categories. In that tradition, Todd Haynes's Mildred Pierce should do quite well.

Best Acress, Miniseries/Movie

Kate Winslet moves one step closer to her EGOT.

Best Actor, Miniseries/Movie

The Kennedys wasn't well received, so be shocked if they pick up wins. Instead, this should be a race between foreigner Edgar Ramirez and William Hurt, who wins off his esteem and the home-field advantage.

Best Supporting Actor, Miniseries/Movie

Paul Giamatti adds the Emmy to his awards closet in a very tight race. Guy Pearce is an obvious threat.

Best Supporting Actress, Miniseries/Movie

Evan Rachel Wood gets to act next to Kate Winslet, and absorbs some of her awards statue magnetism.

Best Directing, Miniseries/Movie

There's great talent here, but Todd Haynes gets swept up in a mini-sweep for Mildred Pierce.

Best Writing, Miniseries/Movie

As in the above category, Mildred Pierce gets this in a slight advantage over Too Big to Fail.
         

Heading into hibernation

I just wanted to thank everyone who followed this blog over the past few months for pushing me to provide it with continued analysis and exclusive pieces.

You may have noticed the title of the blog has now changed, as well as the side description and the URL. Please update accordingly.

I will no longer be affiliating this blog with The Daily Gamecock because I'll be graduating from USC in May. I owe them a great debt for agreeing to publicize me in their printed edition and on Facebook and Twitter. They're a fabulous paper staffed with great people, and I'm proud to be a part of them. Please visit their website, dailygamecock.com.

I plan to continue to update this blog with awards news as it happens over the year, but I will not be providing any exclusive pieces here for a few weeks (or months...). It will get back into full swing next awards season.

I do plan to redirect my focus on my other blog, onceuponatimeinthecinema.blogspot.com, which has been sorely neglected for the past few months between this blog and my schoolwork. Please visit occasionally or follow me on Twitter (@Jim_on_Film).

Why the Oscars still matter

The Oscar hangover.

It happens every year. Just like Christmas, you wait and wait and wait for it. It happens, you have fun watching it, but then it's over and you realize you didn't get the one thing you really wanted. Then you wake up feeling a bit confused as to why you cared at all, and you just shrug it off and start thinking about next year.

In my morning round-up of reading various blogs and news outlets trash James Franco and call the King's Speech wins a horrific marker of how the Academy will just never get it, I'm seeing all the similar arguments I always see -- people who cared so deeply just 24 hours before are now armed with metaphorical torches, ready to slash and burn the Academy and its supposedly feeble attempts to stay relevant.

83rd Annual Academy Award Winners

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
Best Cinematography: Wally Pfister, Inception
Best Costume Design: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland
Best Film Editing: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network
Best Original Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Best Original Song: Toy Story 3
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Final predictions: Going down with the stats

Despite all the hunches in my system telling me there will be some kind of major upset on Sunday, my predictions are going straight down the line. Why? If there are two upsets and everything else goes according to plan, I’ll only look foolish in two categories. Last year I tried to be risky and paid the price – this year I’m sticking close to my statistics and my Oscar history.

Best Picture

Will Win: The King’s Speech

Should Win: The Social Network

Upset Alert: The Social Network

Reasoning: I predict more with the industry’s vote than the critics’ vote. Winners of PGA, DGA and SAG have only lost Best Picture once, and that was fifteen years ago.

Best Director

Will Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Upset Alert: David Fincher, The Social Network

Reasoning: DGA has only not matched Oscar six times, and two of those times the DGA winner wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. A LOT of people are picking Fincher, and I’ll be overjoyed if he wins, but my biggest personal Oscar rule is “go with the DGA.”

Best Actor

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Upset Alert: James Franco, 127 Hours

Reasoning: Every award under the sun.

Best Actress

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Upset Alert: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Reasoning: Even taking away all her other awards, historically the Academy prefers to award younger actresses and older actors. I know, it’s weird, but it dashes a lot of hope for that Bening surprise.

Holding out hope for Best Director

For me, Best Picture is a moot point. I've talked about it to death, I don't care to go back over the same stats, and I'm just trying to relax and not get worked up about the show until we get there.

But watching the Golden Globe win from last month, I have to say... I really, really want David Fincher to win Best Director.

Predictions to hit Sunday morning

For any curious parties, I'll be posting my final predictions, notes and commentaries on mid-Sunday morning, mainly because I'm hosting an Oscar pool and I don't want those turning in ballots on the day they're due (tomorrow) to get an advantage on me by seeing my picks.

Expect a rundown on the categories still in major contention as well as the logic behind each of my picks, and where the upsets could be.

As a final note to those making their own predictions: Expect an upset. There's been so many back-and-forths this year, not only between King's Speech and Social Network, but between Inception's near dominance of the tech guilds and True Grit's left-field possibility. Never forget crazy years like 2000, 2002, and 2005. This is the perfect year for the Academy to do something ridiculous, and I'm getting a sneaking suspicion they just might.

Coming back for everything

Property The Daily Gamecock

Midway through “The Social Network,” Sean Parker (Justin Timberlake) spreads his arms and exclaims to Mark Zuckerberg (Jesse Eisenberg), “This is our time.”
The scathing drama about the rise of social networking website Facebook is, indeed, about “our time.” In a story of several lonely geniuses fighting for control over a bold concept that now defines how many of us interact with and experience our friends, our family and our world, screenwriter Aaron Sorkin and director David Fincher made a film with ambivalence and complex cynicism that sticks a cold knife into a central nerve of contemporary culture.
And for the longest time, it looked like it was “their time” to be honored. “The Social Network” shot out of the gate like a cannon when it was released in October, earning more four-star, rave reviews than any other American film of 2010. When the dust settled at the end of the year, it would also hold top honors from the National Board of Review, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics, among dozens of other honors and mentions from regional film critic organizations and individual critics’ top 10 lists.

Read the rest here.

Why 'The Social Network' deserves to win

Property The Daily Gamecock

"The Social Network” is, to use a phrase only the boldest of film critics should use, perfect. It’s like watching a no-hitter; it’s like watching a Triple Crown winner; it is nirvana, and it makes you high off its dazzling quality.

From the first image through the end credits, the film’s craft blows all of its surrounding peers out of the water. It stands effortlessly as both a deep reflection of our times and as something altogether timeless.
Enough has been written about Aaron Sorkin’s relentlessly fast dialogue and the stunning performances of the whole ensemble; you’d be hard-pressed to find a more flawless group of actors cohering on exactly the level each performance requires. So let’s not talk about that.
Let’s instead focus on how David Fincher poured his obsessive tendencies as a director in every frame and every inch of this film. (In case you didn’t know, he did a total of 99 takes for that ricochet opening scene.)

Read the rest here.

Some ceremony news

Hollywood Reporter has a nice feature about some of the changes to the ceremony this year, including:

-- Virtual Reality Set: The producers abandoned the idea of a traditional set altogether to enter a world of virtual reality via a series of "projections" designed to give the show a constantly-changing look. The virtual end goal is for Franco and Hathaway to take viewers on a trip through Hollywood history with six or seven scenic transitions. "The hope is that we briefly leave the Kodak in 2011 -- not literally but metaphorically -- and take the audience," says Cohen.

 Also, Pete Hammond on Deadline Hollywood says Tom Hanks will be the first presenter, and will be presenting Art Direction (one of the most hotly contested categories of the night) and Cinematography.

'King's Speech,' 'Alice' win CDG

Costume Design Guild winners:

Excellence in Costume Design for Contemporary Film: Black Swan
Excellence in Costume Design for Period Film: The King's Speech
Excellence in Costume Design for Fantasy Film: Alice in Wonderland

Another cool stat

This, paraphrased from the discussion over on Awards Daily:

Those people predicting David Fincher to win Best Director and The King's Speech to win Best Picture actually do have historical grounds for doing so apart from Hooper's DGA win and Fincher's Globe win. Check it out:

Since 1948, when the Best Picture-winner's director has directed two or fewer films prior to their Oscar-winning film and they are additionally not an established star (in order to account for one-offs like Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson who get rewarded for essentially crossing over into directing), and when the director who wins was previously nominated for Best Director, a split occurs approximately 43% of the time. Tom Hooper has directed one other theatrical release apart from The King's Speech (last year's The Damned United).

Here's how it shakes down:

Ang Lee beat Paul Haggis in 2005. Crash goes on to win Best Picture. Haggis had previously directed Red Hot in 1993. Lee had previously been nominated for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Lee also won the DGA in 2005.

Roman Polanski beat Rob Marshall in 2002. Chicago goes on to win Best Picture. It was Marshall's first film. Polanski had previously been nominated for Chinatown and Tess. Marshall won the DGA in 2002.

Warren Beatty beat Hugh Hudson in 1981. Chariots of Fire goes on to win Best Picture. It was Hudson's first full-length narrative film. It was only Beatty's second directorial effort, but he was previously nominated in the category for Heaven Can Wait. Beatty won the DGA in 1981.

This year, Tom Hooper has directed one other movie, and David Fincher was previously nominated for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

In years where this didn't happen:
Sam Mendes wins for American Beauty in 1999. First movie. Won DGA.
James L. Brooks wins for Terms of Endearment in 1983. First movie. Won DGA.
Michael Cimino wins for The Deer Hunter in 1978. Second movie. Won DGA.
Delbert Mann wins for Marty in 1955. First movie. Won DGA.

I hope these are the only instances. I tried to fact-check this one as best I could very quickly. Interestingly though, if a "new" director is going to win the Oscar, he must win the DGA, which Hooper has done.

'Inception' tops MPSE awards

The Motion Picture Sound Editors' Golden Reel Awards for 2010:

Best Sound Effects and Foley Editing in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Music Editing in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Dialogue and ADR Editing in a Feature Film: The Social Network
Best Music Editing in a Musical Feature Film: Country Strong
Best Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue, ADR Editing in an Animation Feature Film: How to Train Your Dragon
Best Sound Editing in a Documentary Feature Film: Rush: Beyond the Lighted Stage

'Speech' vs. 'Inception vs. 'Grit' vs. 'Alice'

This year, the technical categories are giving us a run for our money. I can't remember the last time so many categories seemed so up in the air with a week left in the running.

Even beyond places like foreign film, where I can legitimately see it going about three different ways, or Documentary, where Exit Through the Gift Shop is suddenly in place to take down Inside Job, not to mention the huge question mark over whether the supporting categories will cause chaos to erupt, things are getting tricky.

'True Grit' wins CAS

The sound team behind True Grit has won top honors from the Cinema Audio Society, beating Oscar favorite Inception.

Great choice; I personally think the mixing in True Grit is out of this world. In case you were wondering, CAS has matched with Best Sound Mixing at the Oscars eight of the last 14 years.

'Social Network' wins ACE

Best Edited Feature Film, Drama: The Social Network
Best Edited Feature Film, Comedy: Alice in Wonderland
Best Edited Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Best Edited Animated Feature: Toy Story 3

Big win for Exit Through the Gift Shop. Could we see a coup at the Oscars where Banksy actually gets an Academy Award? Stranger things have happened...

For those who care to know... the winner of the ACE has gone on to win Best Editing at the Oscars every year since 1996 except for 2000, where Gladiator and Almost Famous won honors at ACE and Traffic won at the Oscars.

DGA as kingmaker

There's been a lot of talk about whether The King's Speech is going to sweep or split the Oscars. In many ways, it's a year unlike any other -- and I don't just mean King's Speech and Social Network. I mean King's Speech taking on Inception across the techs, taking on True Grit, taking on The Fighter in supporting categories. This is a year for battles.

And then it hit me. If David Fincher had just won the DGA, this would be a completely different event. We wouldn't be trying to figure out if Fincher's BAFTA win means anything, it would be used by many to predict The Social Network winning Best Picture. There are still plenty of people who think Fincher will win the Oscar. I'm not one of them. If he does, I'll be all the happier for it, as it will probably single-handedly cause me to lose my Oscar pool, but over the nine years I've been following the race, there are only two times the DGA has let me down -- 2002, when The Pianist came out of nowhere, and 2005, when Crash came out of nowhere.

Splits simply aren't easy to predict.

Believe in the upset

Think Fincher and The Social Network can squeeze this one out? I'll have plenty to say on the subject over the next ten days, but every year I always come back to this video. It's undoubtedly the most unprecedented upset in the last however many years of Oscar. There's a reason they don't have this on the official Oscar YouTube channel, either.

Best part? It's a tie between Jack Nicholson mouthing, "what happened" after he reads the winner, and the fact that everyone who's not associated with the movie looks completely displeased.

It's the upset we always hark back to, and it's always a reminder that nobody knows until the envelope is opened.

Jack Nicholson presents Best Picture Oscars (2006) @ Yahoo! Video

Unanswered questions

Right now, I'm pretty much walking in the same circle just to generate content: there's only so much one can write about The Social Network and The King's Speech, and I need to save that for my preview blow-out next Friday.

So while the next couple days will predominantly have reports on the tech categories, with the remaining guilds handing out their awards -- we'll get top honors from the costume designers guild, american cinema editors, motion picture sound editors, and cinema audio society -- I figured it's time to do something different.

What do YOU want to know about this year's Oscars? Maybe it's something as basic as "what's the difference between sound mixing and sound editing"? Or maybe it's something as complicated as, "even though Natalie Portman's won almost every award, is there any precedent for her to lose next Sunday?" Leave a comment or e-mail your questions to me at jgilmore@dailygamecock.com over the weekend and I'll answer them on Sunday night. Don't be shy.

The art direction dilemma

The Art Directors Guild is pretty helpful when it comes to the Oscar, but unfortunately they have three awards: contemporary art direction, period art direction and fantasy art direction. This year, they awarded The King's Speech and Inception in the latter categories, and those two films are arguably going toe-to-toe for the Oscar?

What's a predictor to do?

Loving movies

While my head swirls with thoughts and ideas about where the Oscar race will end up, I thought it'd be a good idea to step back and just consider how cool it is that we have movies that we love, or that we're even capable of loving movies to begin with.

The Oscars bring out the best and worst of people who love movies. The roughly two and a half months between the Golden Globe nominations and the Academy Awards constitute a time of great hope, of crossing our fingers and holding our breath as we firmly believe that this year will be the year the powers that be reward the film we each consider "best." It's a marvelous, awesome time of the year for people like me, because for those two months, the blogosphere just wants to talk about movies -- what was good, why was it good, analyzing performances, camera work, direction -- it's what I do every day on some level or another, and the Oscars are one of the purest forms of cultural debate.

'Inception' wins ASC

Inception cinematographer Wally Pfister wins the American Society of Cinematographer's award for outstanding cinematography in a motion picture for 2010. Pfister has lensed all of Christopher Nolan's films since Memento, including both of his Batman films.

Joel Coen presented Roger Deakins with the ASC's lifetime achievement award.

The 'King's' cracks: 'Network' takes back 30%

I know what you're thinking -- The King's Speech won seven freaking awards. It's unstoppable, it's going to bowl Oscar, we should just figure it'll win seven or eight and The Social Network and The Fighter should give up.

No way.

This race just took a dramatic turn, and things are more heated than ever. David Fincher's Best Director win at BAFTA suddenly opens up the possibility that a Picture/Director split may not be so foolish to bet on. Granted, the BAFTAs are kind of notorious for split years -- 2007 (Atonement wins Pic, Coens win Director), 2006 (Queen wins Pic, Paul Greengrass wins Director), 2004 (The Aviator wins Pic, Mike Leigh wins Director), 2003 (Lord of the Rings wins Pic, Peter Weir wins Director) -- even though they did pick Roman Polanski's win for Best Director (and gave The Pianist Best Film) in 2002. I feel very, very strongly now that David Fincher could pull off his win, because they obviously loved The King's Speech, and yet they didn't award Tom Hooper.

64th Annual BAFTA Awards

The King's Speech caps seven wins including Best Picture; The Social Network pulls out three including Best Director.

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best British Film: The King's Speech
Best Film Not in the English Language: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Original Music: The King's Speech, Alexandre Desplat
Best Cinematography: True Grit, Roger Deakins
Best Editing: The Social Network
Best Production Design: Inception
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Sound: Inception
Best Makeup and Hair: Alice in Wonderland
Best Special Visual Effects: Inception 
Best British Debut: Chris Morris, Four Lions 
Orange Rising Star Award: Tom Hardy

Is supporting acting a battleground?

Maybe in an effort to make things more spicy headed down the home stretch, there are a great deal of people who think Christian Bale and Melissa Leo will lose the Best Supporting Acting categories to Geoffrey Rush and Hailee Steinfeld, respectively. For the Actor, it's because Bale is judged as "not well-liked" for his infamous demeanor and Rush is part of a sweep. For the Actress, it's because Melissa Leo, instead of sticking to Paramount's Oscar campaign for the film, took out ads for herself in Hollywood trade papers. Pretty terrible ads.

I say -- no way. Even if Leo loses votes, where are they going to go? Adams? Steinfeld? Carter? The Best Supporting Actress race is, if anything, completely wide open apart from Leo's clear frontrunner status. The argument goes that True Grit is the next-most-well-liked movie, and ergo they'd want to vote for Steinfeld. But The Fighter is a tremendously well-liked movie -- three acting nominations, picture, director, screenplay, editing nominations.

For Bale to lose, there would have to be a huge momentum swing to Rush, which again I can't see happening because The Fighter is a movie with broad praise. Geoffrey Rush already won his Oscar back in 1996 for Shine. Bale has the "overdue" factor; a decade of shape-shifting, rigorous and unconventional performances should count for something.

Want some historical basis to not expect a big switcheroo in both supporting categories? By all means, I'm happy to oblige.

'Social Network' wins London Film Critics Circle

Film of the Year: The Social Network
Actor of the Year: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Actress of the Year: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Director of the Year: David Fincher, The Social Network
British Film of the Year: The King's Speech
Screenwriter of the Year: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
British Actor of the Year: Christian Bale, The Fighter
British Supporting Actor of the Year: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
British Actress of the Year: Lesley Manville, Another Year
British Supporting Actress of the Year: Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer

On 1941

For film buffs, it's one of the most legendary Academy blunders of all time, a decision that has only gotten worse as history has gone on, the moment we all point to as undeniable evidence that AMPAS has never really had any idea what they're doing in terms of "the big picture."

How Green Was My Valley beat Citizen Kane for Best Picture at the ceremony for 1941, netting John Ford his third Oscar (his second in as many years). Orson Welles did walk away with a win -- he and Joseph L. Mankiewicz shared the Best Screenplay Oscar. It was the film's only win (it had nine nominations). How Green Was My Valley, a small and pretty good movie, won five.

For the film scholars who would later declare (and still declare) Citizen Kane the finest motion picture ever made, it become an instance where the Academy could not, would not see it for its innovation. They were too narrow-sighted; they voted with their hearts because they loved John Ford and Valley was a nice, character-driven drama that didn't ask too much and was a good watch.

'Dragon' tops Animated Film Awards

The "Annies" announced their winners as well tonight, and even though my source site AwardsDaily hasn't posted a full list of winners, I hear tell How to Train Your Dragon has won 10 awards, including:
Best Film
Best Production Design
Best Character Design
Best Directing
Best Writing
Best Voice
Best Storyboard

Art Directors Guild Awards

Best Contemporary Film: Therese DePrez for Black Swan
Best Fantasy Film: Guy Hendrix Dyas for Inception
Best Period Feature Film: Eve Stewart for The King's Speech
 

Writers Guild of America Awards

Well how about that? Not only did Aaron Sorkin win as expected, capping a major day with dual wins at the Scripter and the Writers Guild, but Christopher Nolan won Original Screenplay. Keep in mind, The King's Speech writer David Seidler was ineligible for this award, as he is not a guild member.

Best Original Screenplay: Christopher Nolan for Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network
Best Documentary Writing: Inside Job

"Social Network" wins Scripter

The University of Southern California Scripter Award honors excellence in adaptation; they award both the author of the source material and the screenwriter.

The Social Network earned this year's prize.

Ben Mezrich, who wrote The Accidental Billionaires, and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin were honored.

A case for 'The Social Network'

It's not just coming back for 30%. It's coming back for everything. Maybe.

But wait, isn't the Oscar race "over"? Hasn't The King's Speech virtually locked Best Picture after winning the PGA, DGA, and SAG? Statistically, it sure has. But for those of us still holding out hope, still trying to find some conceivable way to imagine a scenario where The Social Network at least wins Best Director if not Best Picture.

And no, I'm not buying the "different voting bodies" argument, which goes something like this: The people who vote on the PGA, DGA, and SAG are not the people who vote on the Oscars. True. But some of the people who vote on the guilds vote on the Oscars, and none of the people who vote on the Globes vote on the Oscars. So, given statistics and history, I refuse to ever use that as an argument.

"Inception" wins big at Visual Effects Society

Best Visual Effects in a Visual-Effects Driven Picture: Inception
Best Supporting Visual Effects: Hereafter
Best Animation in an Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon
Best Animated Character in a Live Action Feature: Dobby from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Best Animated Character in an Animated Feature: Toothless from How to Train Your Dragon
Best Effects Animation in an Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon
Best Created Environment in a Live Action Feature: Paris Dreamscape from Inception
Best Models and Miniatures: Inception - Hospital Fortress Destruction
Best Compositing: Inception

Check out the new, informative sidebar

To help keep things organized as we head into the last month of the race, I've created a sidebar with all the nominees and everything they've won so far. I've organized each category based on who I perceive to be the frontrunner, and will be updating this as we hear more announcements from different guilds, the British Academy, etc.

Aside from letting you see who has won what, you can also see the difference between critics groups like Los Angeles Film Critics Association and industry groups like the Screen Actors Guild.

My hope is that this will make discussions more economical and easier to follow. To make things cleaner, I won't include mentions for nominees (such as putting a [BAFTA] indication next to things nominated for the British Academy) but will add an indication once those winners are announced.

There is no sweep yet

Now that The King's Speech has turned this from a predictable Oscars race to an unpredictable Oscars race and then straight back to predictable in a mere two weeks (and let's not bemoan that fact, the time between the Critics Choice and the Screen Actors Guild has made this one of the most interesting years since 2006), there are some who are not simply saying the Best Picture race is over, they're saying the whole darn thing is sewn up.

The King's Speech performing a coup de grace sweep? I'm not buying that yet, but that's partially because the technical guilds (the American Society of Cinematographers, the American Cinema Editors, the Cinema Audio Society, etc) haven't announced yet, and I'm hard-pressed to believe Speech will dominate there, or at the Oscars.

The last time there was an out-and-out sweep was Slumdog Millionaire, which won eight. Certainly, Hurt Locker's six-win stand counted as a pretty bold win, but apart from those years, the previous Best Picture winners had four wins (No Country, The Departed), three (Crash), and four (Million Dollar Baby). I think even if The King's Speech is destined to win, there's going to be some wealth going around.

The Fighters: SAG winners, Oscar hopefuls

Much like last year, it seems all four acting categories have converged on four performances: I cannot see anyone else winning these categories aside from Firth, Portman, Leo, and Bale, who all won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe and now the Screen Actors Guild.

The only way it's possible is if King's Speech were to surge so much that Rush takes Supporting Actor.

But I would like to make an observation: all four of these performances are about people fighting for their own sake. Bale's drug-addled ex-boxer fights to get clean and to do right by his brother, Leo's manipulative mother fights to understand what's best for her son and for what she believes are the smart choices, Firth's King George fights to overcome his stammer so he can be a leader for his people, and Portman fights her own unconscious in her quest to be perfect. Maybe that's the industry is responding to this year, films and performances about our desire to try and better ourselves.


They are four very unique performances, four very demanding and uncompromising performances. I think you'd have to be a fool not to pick them at this point. The only show left is the BAFTA in two weeks.

The only other question: how far will The King's Speech go? It did not qualify for the WGA award, so David Seidler will sit that one out. It will almost certainly win the BAFTA, but what else? Costume Design Guild? Art Directors Guild? Or will Inception and The Social Network make some last minute stands for glory. With Speech winning all three major guilds it was nominated for, this has suddenly become a tale of two races: no film has ever won as many precursors as The Social Network did, and no film (to my knowledge) that has won PGA, DGA and SAG has gone on to lose Best Picture. What a race.

Screen Actors Guild Award winners

Best Cast Ensemble: The King's Speech
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Firth for The King's Speech
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Natalie Portman for Black Swan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian Bale for The Fighter
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Melissa Leo for The Fighter

Screen Actors preview

Tonight at 8 p.m. on TNT, the Screen Actors become the third guild to shepherd in their choices on the heels of a rather dramatic King's Speech coup of the PGA and DGA. Will they join the tide? Will they pull The Social Network back into the fray? Or, will they go a totally different direction?

The SAG is not the guild to end all guilds. Over the last few years, its top prize, the Best Ensemble award, has gone to: Inglourious Basterds, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Little Miss Sunshine, Crash, Sideways, The Lord of the Rings, Chicago, Gosford Park and Traffic. Six of the last ten years, the Ensemble winner has not gone on to win Best Picture. Three of the four times it has happened, it's been a "sweep" year; Crash is the outlier (its only guild win before winning Best Picture was here).

In defense of Tom Hooper

I'm not going to lie, the Directors Guild of America awards were pretty devastating. I of course was cheering for David Fincher, but would have been perfectly content to see Nolan, Aronofsky, or Russell take a surprise win. But for some reason, a largely inexplicable reason at that, director Tom Hooper of The King's Speech received the award, and in the process stuck a fork in the Oscar race.

When you've been watching/writing about the Oscar race for several years, following it from NBR to Oscar night, you kind of learn to stop caring and not mind what happens. Did I think Slumdog Millionaire deserved its runaway success? No way, but I was happy for Danny Boyle. Was I angry that Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight was slapped in the face by shutting its creator out of the 2008 race? You bet, but Heath Ledger won his posthumous award, and that felt okay. Even in years where the films and people I want to see win have won -- Scorsese/The Departed in 2006 and the Coens/No Country for Old Men in 2007, it's never really about the Oscars; they're a game, a marker of how the industry wants to project itself. In the end, the movies survive with or without awards, and I often forget No Country for Old Men actually won Best Picture.

So on a morning where the blogosphere is pretty much collapsing with proclamations of "worst awards season ever" and "the Oscar race is over" and other mostly reactive and childish rants on the subject, I thought it would be better to step back and think about this in a more neutral way.

Tom Hooper wins Directors Guild

The King's Speech picks up its second major win in as many weeks, with director Tom Hooper winning the pivotal Directors Guild of America award, an honor most were predicting would go to The Social Network's David Fincher.

Despite losing the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe to The Social Network, King's Speech has had a dramatic turnaround: winning the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and earning the most Oscar nominations all within a seven-day stretch, it's suddenly gone from being the underdog to the frontrunner in what's fast becoming one of the most fierce Oscar seasons in recent memory. The DGA winner has gone on to win the Best Director Oscar for the past seven years.

As this news is just announced, and it's now 2:30 a.m. here on the east coast, I will be providing a full write-up in the morning that segues into the Screen Actors Guild preview.

Best Supporting Actress: the unknowable factors

With the Screen Actors Guild around the corner tomorrow, I'll be doing a longer preview thinking about some scenarios in the five categories and what various wins could mean for the Oscar race, especially in the wake of however the Directors Guild of America ends up tonight.

In the meantime though, I'm stuck thinking about Best Supporting Actress and trying to wrap my mind around why I have no idea who I think will win the Oscar.

Maybe that's because in the past few years, the Golden Globes have seemed particularly unreliable in this category. Last year was a bit of an exception, with Mo'Nique winning everything under the sun for Precious, and I'd be inclined to say if Melissa Leo wins the SAG tomorrow night she'll be on her way to an Oscar for The Fighter. But what of Amy Adams? The young, three-time nominee could almost certainly siphon votes, but the problem of thinking about "vote siphoning" is that it almost never actually happens. For a split-vote to occur, there have be large percentage of votes drawn for both actors of the same movie, plus a larger percentage drawn for the third party. The only time in recent memory where I think it's happened was in 2002 when Adrien Brody beat Jack Nicholson/Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor, but that was the night when The Pianist burst out of nowhere to win three top awards.