1. The Social Network (NO CHANGE)
Landing at number one on Sight & Sound’s Top 10 of the year is enough to jump-start a campaign, but having a clean sweep of the National Board of Review doesn’t hurt either. Winning Best Picture, Director, Actor and Adapted Screenplay is almost unprecedented for the NBR. If one movie stands atop the pile, this is it.
2. Inception (NO CHANGE)
Earning a crucial spot on the National Board of Review Top 10 list and scoring 11 nominations in the International Press Academy’s Golden Satellite Awards (even if that organization doesn’t really mean anything) makes sure this will be sticking around.
3. The King’s Speech (UP ONE)
It made a per-screen average killing in super-limited release over Thanksgiving and the reviews treat it as the annual British movie that the Oscars will love. It also landed on the NBR Top 10.
4. True Grit (DOWN ONE)
The earliest reviews are strong, but no one seems bowled over yet. That’s the price you pay of positioning yourself as a major frontrunner before release – the reviews will inevitably have a tinge of restraint in their praise, because they know you’re automatically in the Oscar game. A slot on the NBR top 10 keeps it alive and kicking.
5. Toy Story 3 (NO CHANGE)
This is going to be nominated. Pixar is going to try to manipulate as many heartstrings as it can to make a plea for the prize.


