Despite all the hunches in my system telling me there will be some kind of major upset on Sunday, my predictions are going straight down the line. Why? If there are two upsets and everything else goes according to plan, I’ll only look foolish in two categories. Last year I tried to be risky and paid the price – this year I’m sticking close to my statistics and my Oscar history.
Best Picture
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Social Network
Upset Alert: The Social Network
Reasoning: I predict more with the industry’s vote than the critics’ vote. Winners of PGA, DGA and SAG have only lost Best Picture once, and that was fifteen years ago.
Best Director
Will Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Upset Alert: David Fincher, The Social Network
Reasoning: DGA has only not matched Oscar six times, and two of those times the DGA winner wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. A LOT of people are picking Fincher, and I’ll be overjoyed if he wins, but my biggest personal Oscar rule is “go with the DGA.”
Best Actor
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Upset Alert: James Franco, 127 Hours
Reasoning: Every award under the sun.
Best Actress
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Upset Alert: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Reasoning: Even taking away all her other awards, historically the Academy prefers to award younger actresses and older actors. I know, it’s weird, but it dashes a lot of hope for that Bening surprise.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Upset Alert: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Reasoning: In 2006, Eddie Murphy earned the BFCA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards before Alan Arkin won the BAFTA and then upset at the Oscars. Some folks see that pattern playing out and are predicting a Rush win, but “Dreamgirls” missed Picture and Director nominations (signal of overall voting weakness) and Murphy was in the midst of bad publicity. Arkin had not won before; Rush has.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Upset Alert: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Reasoning: The whole “oh, they want to award True Grit more than the The Fighter” argument makes no sense to me. Leo hasn’t lost a major award she was nominated for (she wasn’t nominated at the BAFTA).
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: Inception
Upset Alert: Inception
Reasoning: David Seidler’s story about overcoming his own speech stammer because he was inspired by King George VI and wanted to tell his story is enough to want to give that guy an Oscar. Inception may have the WGA (it didn’t compete against Speech) but it has sci-fi handicap.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Upset Alert: True Grit
Reasoning: Every prize under the sun.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: In a Better World
Should Win: (I’ve only seen one, so that’s not fair)
Upset Alert: Incendies
Reasoning: If you picked Biutiful, you may have locked yourself out – in order to vote for Best Foreign Language, you must attend Academy-sanctioned screenings of the five films. That usually translates to the popular film not winning (best example? 2006 – Pan’s Labyrinth loses to Lives of Others). I’m picking In a Better World solely because it won the Globe and I’ve heard many say it has elements the Academy usually goes for in this category. I’ve heard an equal number of people say Incendies will win this award.
Best Documentary
Will Win: Inside Job
Should Win: (I haven’t seen them all, so that’s not fair)
Upset Alert: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Reasoning: The most mainstream and most acclaimed of the bunch, and lets them reward Charles Ferguson after shafting No End in Sight in 2007. I’ve heard legitimate cases for Exit Through the Gift Shop, but I honestly can’t see the Academy catering to something so experimental. It would blow my mind (in a great way) if Gift Shop won, though.
Art Direction
Will Win: Alice in Wonderland
Should Win: Inception
Upset Alert: The King’s Speech
Reasoning: This is one of the most wide-open of the night. Speech and Inception both won Art Directors Guild honors, and Speech can easily win this award as part of its sweep toward Best Picture, but I just don’t get a “sweep vibe” this year. I’m picking Alice because the three other times a Burton film has been nominated in this category, it’s won. I acknowledge Speech is probably a safer bet, but I just have a feeling it will lose here.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: True Grit
Should Win: True Grit
Upset Alert: Inception
Reasoning: Inception has the ASC, which matches Oscar about half the time. Roger Deakins has been nominated like 1,560 times (no, not really) and never won – here is where they’ll award True Grit.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
Upset Alert: Alice in Wonderland
Reasoning: Since 1996, when a movie wins Best Picture and is nominated for Best Costume Design, it wins Best Costume Design. I know, that’s kind of a loopy statistic, but I’m going for it.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Upset Alert: The King’s Speech
Reasoning: The winner of the ACE Eddie Award has won this category 17 of the last 19 years. It’s statistically the safest thing next to the DGA.
Best Original Score
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Upset Alert: The King’s Speech
Reasoning: If it doesn’t win, it’s because the Academy is a) afraid of electronica-heavy scores or b) wants to give Alexandre Desplat a “career award” for one of his simplest scores or c) just loves King’s Speech that much. I’m okay with giving Desplat an Oscar, but please not for Speech.
Best Original Song
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: I hate this category
Upset Alert: 127 Hours
Reasoning: They love Randy Newman and Toy Story? They also love A.R. Rahman. Either way, I truly despise this category and want it to go away.
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: True Grit
Upset Alert: True Grit
Reasoning: Grit won the CAS, which is not a great match-up with Oscar. If King’s Speech or Social Network should win this award, you’re looking at your Best Picture winner.
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Upset Alert: Toy Story 3
Reasoning: It’s always dangerous to think the same film will win both sound awards, but it’s kind of hard to deny Inception, especially when it has two MPSE awards under its belt.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Upset Alert: Alice in Wonderland
Reasoning: Why would you bet against Inception here?
Best Makeup
Will Win: The Wolfman
Should Win: The Wolfman
Upset Alert: The Way Back
Reasoning: Showy makeup vs. more traditional makeup. I’ll give the edge to the creature feature.
In summary…
Best Picture: The King’s Speech
Best Director: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World
Best Documentary Feature: Inside Job
Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech
Best Film Editing: The Social Network
Best Original Score: The Social Network
Best Original Song: Toy Story 3
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
No comments:
Post a Comment