With the Screen Actors Guild around the corner tomorrow, I'll be doing a longer preview thinking about some scenarios in the five categories and what various wins could mean for the Oscar race, especially in the wake of however the Directors Guild of America ends up tonight.
In the meantime though, I'm stuck thinking about Best Supporting Actress and trying to wrap my mind around why I have no idea who I think will win the Oscar.
Maybe that's because in the past few years, the Golden Globes have seemed particularly unreliable in this category. Last year was a bit of an exception, with Mo'Nique winning everything under the sun for Precious, and I'd be inclined to say if Melissa Leo wins the SAG tomorrow night she'll be on her way to an Oscar for The Fighter. But what of Amy Adams? The young, three-time nominee could almost certainly siphon votes, but the problem of thinking about "vote siphoning" is that it almost never actually happens. For a split-vote to occur, there have be large percentage of votes drawn for both actors of the same movie, plus a larger percentage drawn for the third party. The only time in recent memory where I think it's happened was in 2002 when Adrien Brody beat Jack Nicholson/Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor, but that was the night when The Pianist burst out of nowhere to win three top awards.
In 2008, Kate Winslet won Supporting Actress at the Globes for The Reader, a performance she would eventually win Best Actress for. Penelope Cruz, the Supporting Actress Oscar winner, was nominated for the Globe and won the SAG. In 2007, Cate Blanchett won the Globe for I'm Not There, Ruby Dee won the SAG for American Gangster, and Tilda Swinton ended up winning the Oscar for Michael Clayton (she won the BAFTA the week before the Oscar). In 2006, Jennifer Hudson won the Globe, SAG and Oscar for Dreamgirls. In 2005, Rachel Weisz did the same triple crown with The Constant Gardener. In 2004, Natalie Portman won the Globe for Closer, Cate Blanchett won the SAG for The Aviator and then Blanchett won the Oscar. Finally, Renee Zellweger won all three in 2003 for Cold Mountain.
The point of going back through the last six years? When one actress wins the Globe and the SAG, they win the Oscar (2003, 2005, 2006, 2009). When an actress wins the SAG but not the Globe, they won the Oscar 2/3 times (2004, 2008). The only real outlier is 2007, where different actresses won all three awards. So were Melissa Leo to win the SAG on Sunday (along with presumed winners Christian Bale, Colin Firth, and Natalie Portman), she would in all likelihood go on to win the Oscar.
The problem erupts if someone else wins the SAG. That someone is True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld.
The SAG lineup matches the Globes lineup 4/5, where Leo competed against fellow Fighter star Amy Adams, Black Swan's Mila Kunis, and King's Speech's Helena Bonham Carter. I have no reason to believe any of those three ladies will win the SAG; further, Kunis is not nominated for the Oscar. The Academy lineup drops Kunis in favor of Animal Kingdom's Jacki Weaver (who won the NBR way back at the beginning of December). BUT, the Golden Globes did not nominate True Grit for anything. It had zero nominations; the Academy gave it 10. In terms of a momentum swing, that's huge, and should not be undervalued.
But a 14-year old girl in her first performance beating a seasoned veteran like Melissa Leo? They're both Best Picture nominees, they both have Directing and Screenplay nominees, but -- and I think this is where Steinfeld stands a chance -- she doesn't act her age in the film. The Coens give her highly stylized, very formal dialogue and demand her to behave in very particular ways, and she seems to pull it off without a hitch. Leo's performance is admirable, certainly, for the emotionally draining and realistic way she develops her manipulative mother, and that's part of the problem with this category -- no woman stands head-and-shoulders above the other (in a good way; it's a solid category).
So because Steinfeld was not nominated for the Globe, there's a certain bit of uncertainty in regards to her potential to win the SAG. The only other time she's fought this lineup was at the Critics Choice, where she lost to Leo (but where The Fighter also picked up three wins including Best Ensemble). Even if Steinfeld loses the SAG to Leo, there's a bizarre possibility that she could buck statistics and win the Oscar -- True Grit was not nominated for Best Ensemble at the SAG, but again, its 10 nominations at the Oscars speak to a great deal of love (the only film I can think of in the last 10 years to be nominated for that many awards and win nothing was Gangs of New York... I'll have to check that statistic, and then figure out what True Grit will win).
To arrive at some sort of conclusion: were Hailee Steinfeld to win the SAG tomorrow, I think statistics indicate she will go on to win the Oscar. Were Leo to win, statistics indicate she will go on to win the Oscar, with a Steinfeld upset certainly lingering in the background. Let the games continue.
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