Another cool stat

This, paraphrased from the discussion over on Awards Daily:

Those people predicting David Fincher to win Best Director and The King's Speech to win Best Picture actually do have historical grounds for doing so apart from Hooper's DGA win and Fincher's Globe win. Check it out:

Since 1948, when the Best Picture-winner's director has directed two or fewer films prior to their Oscar-winning film and they are additionally not an established star (in order to account for one-offs like Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson who get rewarded for essentially crossing over into directing), and when the director who wins was previously nominated for Best Director, a split occurs approximately 43% of the time. Tom Hooper has directed one other theatrical release apart from The King's Speech (last year's The Damned United).

Here's how it shakes down:

Ang Lee beat Paul Haggis in 2005. Crash goes on to win Best Picture. Haggis had previously directed Red Hot in 1993. Lee had previously been nominated for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Lee also won the DGA in 2005.

Roman Polanski beat Rob Marshall in 2002. Chicago goes on to win Best Picture. It was Marshall's first film. Polanski had previously been nominated for Chinatown and Tess. Marshall won the DGA in 2002.

Warren Beatty beat Hugh Hudson in 1981. Chariots of Fire goes on to win Best Picture. It was Hudson's first full-length narrative film. It was only Beatty's second directorial effort, but he was previously nominated in the category for Heaven Can Wait. Beatty won the DGA in 1981.

This year, Tom Hooper has directed one other movie, and David Fincher was previously nominated for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

In years where this didn't happen:
Sam Mendes wins for American Beauty in 1999. First movie. Won DGA.
James L. Brooks wins for Terms of Endearment in 1983. First movie. Won DGA.
Michael Cimino wins for The Deer Hunter in 1978. Second movie. Won DGA.
Delbert Mann wins for Marty in 1955. First movie. Won DGA.

I hope these are the only instances. I tried to fact-check this one as best I could very quickly. Interestingly though, if a "new" director is going to win the Oscar, he must win the DGA, which Hooper has done.