Heading into hibernation

I just wanted to thank everyone who followed this blog over the past few months for pushing me to provide it with continued analysis and exclusive pieces.

You may have noticed the title of the blog has now changed, as well as the side description and the URL. Please update accordingly.

I will no longer be affiliating this blog with The Daily Gamecock because I'll be graduating from USC in May. I owe them a great debt for agreeing to publicize me in their printed edition and on Facebook and Twitter. They're a fabulous paper staffed with great people, and I'm proud to be a part of them. Please visit their website, dailygamecock.com.

I plan to continue to update this blog with awards news as it happens over the year, but I will not be providing any exclusive pieces here for a few weeks (or months...). It will get back into full swing next awards season.

I do plan to redirect my focus on my other blog, onceuponatimeinthecinema.blogspot.com, which has been sorely neglected for the past few months between this blog and my schoolwork. Please visit occasionally or follow me on Twitter (@Jim_on_Film).

Why the Oscars still matter

The Oscar hangover.

It happens every year. Just like Christmas, you wait and wait and wait for it. It happens, you have fun watching it, but then it's over and you realize you didn't get the one thing you really wanted. Then you wake up feeling a bit confused as to why you cared at all, and you just shrug it off and start thinking about next year.

In my morning round-up of reading various blogs and news outlets trash James Franco and call the King's Speech wins a horrific marker of how the Academy will just never get it, I'm seeing all the similar arguments I always see -- people who cared so deeply just 24 hours before are now armed with metaphorical torches, ready to slash and burn the Academy and its supposedly feeble attempts to stay relevant.

83rd Annual Academy Award Winners

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
Best Cinematography: Wally Pfister, Inception
Best Costume Design: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland
Best Film Editing: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network
Best Original Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Best Original Song: Toy Story 3
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Final predictions: Going down with the stats

Despite all the hunches in my system telling me there will be some kind of major upset on Sunday, my predictions are going straight down the line. Why? If there are two upsets and everything else goes according to plan, I’ll only look foolish in two categories. Last year I tried to be risky and paid the price – this year I’m sticking close to my statistics and my Oscar history.

Best Picture

Will Win: The King’s Speech

Should Win: The Social Network

Upset Alert: The Social Network

Reasoning: I predict more with the industry’s vote than the critics’ vote. Winners of PGA, DGA and SAG have only lost Best Picture once, and that was fifteen years ago.

Best Director

Will Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Upset Alert: David Fincher, The Social Network

Reasoning: DGA has only not matched Oscar six times, and two of those times the DGA winner wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. A LOT of people are picking Fincher, and I’ll be overjoyed if he wins, but my biggest personal Oscar rule is “go with the DGA.”

Best Actor

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Upset Alert: James Franco, 127 Hours

Reasoning: Every award under the sun.

Best Actress

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Upset Alert: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Reasoning: Even taking away all her other awards, historically the Academy prefers to award younger actresses and older actors. I know, it’s weird, but it dashes a lot of hope for that Bening surprise.