1. The Artist (NO CHANGE)
Best Picture, Director wins from the NYFCC keep it high atop the potential nominees. When I saw it earlier this week, my screening full of old people went absolutely wild for it. That bodes well for Oscar voting types.
2. The Descendants (NO CHANGE)
NBR gives it love in the form of Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress wins. It could very well win LAFCA next week; they love Alexander Payne. It's definitely a part of the conversation.
3. Hugo (UP FOUR)
National Board of Review gives it Best Picture and Best Director. If more people rally around it for its very personal vision (and for Scorsese's good name) it could stay in the game in a major way.
4. The Help (DOWN ONE)
Finally saw it, and it's exactly the kind of movie the Oscars will love. Historical, upbeat, plays to our heartstrings -- oh yeah, this one will get a Picture nod unless it just disappears in the circuit.
5. War Horse (NO CHANGE)
As more and more reviews leak, the consensus seems to be it's both beautiful and sentimental. The Christmas release still makes it a great unknown as far as the rankings are concerned, and it probably won't be a player on the critics' circuit, but Golden Globes could be a potent place for it to strike.
6. Moneyball (DOWN TWO)
I'm still convinced it will get nominated, but the NYFCC awards make another possibility surface: Could they award Brad Pitt and not the film? Will the praise for the film as a whole coalesce around praise for Pitt?
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (UP TWO)
The NBR put it on their Top 10 list, which isn't really an indication of anything. The critics may not recognize it for anything. The Globes might ignore it, BUT if the Critics Choice boosts it, it could be a sign that Warner's massive ad campaign is starting to work.
8. The Tree of Life (UP TWO)
I have a feeling that even though this film isn't going to end up winning anything at the Oscars, it's going to stay in the conversation. It's obviously a film people are passionate about, and almost everyone else respects.
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (DOWN THREE)
Because no one's seen it yet, no one knows what to make of it. Still a player.
10. Midnight in Paris (DOWN TWO)
Is Woody's film simply too small? It needs a big vocal supporter beyond the Spirit Awards.
11. Beginners (NEW)
It tied for Best Picture at the Gothams, earned a good handful of Spirit nods, and scored a spot on NBR's best independent features list. While most see Plummer as the film's default nomination, it could groundswell very easily.
Off the List: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
