I kind of loathe the Television Academy, because they pick the same stuff year in and year out, they nominate the same people, and they make predicting their shows very, very hard. I usually suck at predicting the Emmys, but as I can't see an awards show without tossing my hat into the ring, let's do this thing.
Comedy categories
Best Comedy Series
Glee (FOX)
Parks and Recreation (NBC)
The Office (NBC)
Modern Family (ABC)
30 Rock (NBC)
What goes down: 30 Rock won this award three years in a row, until Modern Family broke through last year and seized the award on a whirl of acting and writing nominations. The Office is a stand-by nominee in this category; don't look for it to win this year. If Glee couldn't win in its freshman season, the uneven sophomore effort surely can't close the deal. Parks and Recreation is under-the-radar in its first nomination here, but Modern Family will retain the title belt.
Best Actor, Comedy
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Steve Carell, The Office
Louis C.K., Louie
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
What goes down: Perennial favorite Alec Baldwin got ousted by Jim Parsons last year. Louis C.K. is doing arguably the most adventurous comedic role on television, but it's a bit too dark for this award. Steve Carell, on the other hand, has been nominated for this role six times, and hasn't won it once. Until now.
Best Actress, Comedy
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
What goes down: This should be a more interesting category than it is, with the sharp division between basic network stars and premium cable shows. Emmy favorite Edie Falco will win for the second year in a row, barring an unseen wave of adulation for Amy Poehler.
Best Supporting Actor, Comedy Series
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
What goes down: Stonestreet won this last year, but how can you possibly choose one of the four Modern Family guys? If Glee's second season had a strong point, it was Chris Colfer, who got a majority of big dramatic moments, singing opportunities, and well-rounded comedy. He scoops it.
Best Supporting Actress, Comedy Series
Jane Lynch, Glee
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
What goes down: Betty White doesn't get this on a sympathy vote, like at the SAG awards. Jane Lynch won last year, but her role in Glee was downplayed significantly this season. It's tight between SNL's Wiig and Family's Sofia Vergara, but the in-house love of Modern Family pushes her over the edge.
Best Directing, Comedy Series
There's no Glee here, but there are three Modern Family mentions. The show wins it, and I'll go out on a limb and randomly say they win for the episode, "Slow Down Your Neighbors."
Best Writing, Comedy Series
Louis C.K. is poised to get a big win here, especially if the Academy wants to award him and Steve Carell. Look for Louie to get a shocking mini-upset.
Drama Categories
Best Series, Drama
Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Dexter (SHO)
Friday Night Lights (NBC)
Mad Men (AMC)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
The Good Wife (CBS)
What goes down: HBO wants this award back so very, very badly. After The Sopranos picked it up in 2007, it's been nothing but Mad Men for three straight years. And even if the fourth season plunged into deeper territory for Jon Hamm and the SCDP crew, the Box Office has a gritty period drama and a ballsy fantasy epic on slate. Vying for Scorsese's love and trending on the Globes win, the Emmy goes from basic cable back to premium. Boardwalk Empire squeezes a very tight win.
Best Actor, Drama
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Hugh Laurie, House
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Timothy Olyphant, Justified
What goes down: These guys can breathe easy: Bryan Cranston didn't have to act this year with Breaking Bad on hiatus, so now someone else can finally win. "The Suitcase" -- arguably Hamm's best work on Men -- is enough to finally win the show an acting Emmy. But not so fast. There's this Steve Buscemi guy, and he's got a showier role and a more storied history. The Mad Men curse stays strong.
Best Actress, Drama
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Mireille Enos, The Killing
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
What goes down: Julianna Margulies lost out to Kyra Sedgwick last year, but the popular CBS drama gets a crowning win this time.
Best Supporting Actor, Drama
Andre Baugher, Men of a Certain Age
Walton Goggins, Justified
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
John Slattery, Mad Men
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
What goes down: Fantasy may not be everyone's cup of tea, and the show may have no other acting nods, but Peter Dinklage should be considered a lock. In a fantasy world, Walter Goggins is an acceptable alternative.
Best Supporting Actress, Drama
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Michelle Forbes, The Killing
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Margo Martindale, Justified
What goes down: Despite the obvious love this Academy has for The Good Wife, F/X's Justified is making a gradual impression (with its three major acting nods), and Margo Martindale takes this as an award for the show.
Best Directing, Drama Series
How can you not want to vote for Martin Scorsese's Boardwalk Empire pilot?
Best Writing, Drama Series
I may not think Mad Men is on its way to a fourth-year stampede, but "The Suitcase" might be the most well-written episode of the whole show. It takes this easily.
Reality
Best Variety, Comedy, or Musical Series
Comedy Central's The Daily Show with Jon Stewart has a monopolistic hold on this category that's not going anywhere.
Best Reality Competition Program
You'd be foolish not to bet on The Amazing Race.
Best Writing, Variety/Comedy Series
It's a tight one, but The Daily Show edges out fellow Comedy Central partner Colbert Report on the strength of their summer shows.
TV Miniseries/Movie
Best TV Miniseries or Movie
HBO is despised for owning these categories. In that tradition, Todd Haynes's Mildred Pierce should do quite well.
Best Acress, Miniseries/Movie
Kate Winslet moves one step closer to her EGOT.
Best Actor, Miniseries/Movie
The Kennedys wasn't well received, so be shocked if they pick up wins. Instead, this should be a race between foreigner Edgar Ramirez and William Hurt, who wins off his esteem and the home-field advantage.
Best Supporting Actor, Miniseries/Movie
Paul Giamatti adds the Emmy to his awards closet in a very tight race. Guy Pearce is an obvious threat.
Best Supporting Actress, Miniseries/Movie
Evan Rachel Wood gets to act next to Kate Winslet, and absorbs some of her awards statue magnetism.
Best Directing, Miniseries/Movie
There's great talent here, but Todd Haynes gets swept up in a mini-sweep for Mildred Pierce.
Best Writing, Miniseries/Movie
As in the above category, Mildred Pierce gets this in a slight advantage over Too Big to Fail.
