Breaking down lead acting

With the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards having all put out their nominees, we start to think about the "sure things" -- who can definitely be nominated, and who's still on the outside?  I'd still argue that the only of the four acting categories that may be sewn up at this point is Lead Actor (for Colin Firth's turn in "The King's Speech") and maybe Supporting Actor (depending on if Christian Bale can win any/all of the three awards above.

Today I'll try to look closer at the two leading categories based on the three awards above -- NOT on who's won the most critics awards -- and see who's poised to get an upset bid at an Oscar nomination.

Read on after the jump.

Analysis: Is "Black Swan" the Spoiler?

In all the pre-season buzz, analysts and bloggers formed a united front around a two-way race for Best Picture even before the National Board of Review started the avalanche: "The Social Network" - the movie of the now - would fight "The King's Speech" - a movie about the past - for the top prize. It was a classic battle -- the former American, the latter British; new age, World War II; respected director/writer, budding filmmaker; new generation of actors, esteemed pedigree; major studio fare, small domestic release. It would be, for all intents and purposes, a pretty typical rendition of an Oscar battle, with both films likely trading blows ("Social Network" was widely predicted to sweep the critics before it happened, a la "Lost in Translation" in 2003; "The King's Speech" has solidly been the Golden Globes film for a while) until Oscar had a final decree.

But, as always, some things happen along the way that you don't expect.

Read the rest after jump.

Academy disqualifies "Swan," "Grit" scores

Based on their predominant use of pre-existing themes, the Academy has disqualified "Black Swan" and "True Grit" from competing in the Best Original Score category. Further, because they are largely driven by songs instead of original compositions (despite the inclusion OF original scores), "The Kids Are All Right" and "The Fighter" are also ineligible.

This from Variety. Read the whole story here:

Composer Clint Mansell's "Black Swan" score, as largely adapted from Tchaikovsky's "Swan Lake," and Carter Burwell's "True Grit," as mostly based on 19th-century hymns, are not sufficiently "original," the committee ruled last week.

Analysis: Speaking of Turning Points

For the first couple weeks, The Social Network was an unstoppable behemoth. It was without question (and seemingly, without hesitation) the film that the critics wanted to honor as the best of 2010. And why not? It's a zeitgeist film, a beautiful and very troubling film about the way we use technology to live and create our lives. It takes no easy stances and give no easy answers, and its artistic merits are only bolstered by an easy identification many of us share with Facebook as a way to manufacture (or prove) our own identities (I for one will even be posting a link to this article on Facebook once I'm done writing it).

But the Academy? That group of industry insiders? Will THEY be so quick, so unanimous to pick a film whose main characters are all thoroughly unlikable, that grandstands lots of "big" questions about our society but packs its action so closely into deposition rooms. Ten years ago, I would have said, NO WAY! Today, I'm in "The Social Network's" corner not only because I want it to win and think it is the strongest American film of the year, but because I think it's emblematic of the direction the Academy is trying to go in its big choices.

15th Annual Golden Satellite Awards

Best Picture, Drama: The Social Network
Best Picture, Comedy: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Best Director: David Fincher for The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler for The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network

The rest after the jump: