Much like last year, it seems all four acting categories have converged on four performances: I cannot see anyone else winning these categories aside from Firth, Portman, Leo, and Bale, who all won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe and now the Screen Actors Guild.
The only way it's possible is if King's Speech were to surge so much that Rush takes Supporting Actor.
But I would like to make an observation: all four of these performances are about people fighting for their own sake. Bale's drug-addled ex-boxer fights to get clean and to do right by his brother, Leo's manipulative mother fights to understand what's best for her son and for what she believes are the smart choices, Firth's King George fights to overcome his stammer so he can be a leader for his people, and Portman fights her own unconscious in her quest to be perfect. Maybe that's the industry is responding to this year, films and performances about our desire to try and better ourselves.
They are four very unique performances, four very demanding and uncompromising performances. I think you'd have to be a fool not to pick them at this point. The only show left is the BAFTA in two weeks.
The only other question: how far will The King's Speech go? It did not qualify for the WGA award, so David Seidler will sit that one out. It will almost certainly win the BAFTA, but what else? Costume Design Guild? Art Directors Guild? Or will Inception and The Social Network make some last minute stands for glory. With Speech winning all three major guilds it was nominated for, this has suddenly become a tale of two races: no film has ever won as many precursors as The Social Network did, and no film (to my knowledge) that has won PGA, DGA and SAG has gone on to lose Best Picture. What a race.
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