The game is a-foot! With no frontrunner and no idea of how many films will actually be nominated for Best Picture this year (you're so tricky, Academy), this first round of Best Picture power rankings has a hint of surprise and uncertainty that I'm really excited about. Reading over last year's Power Rankings, I had 7/10 nominees pegged at this time last year, and all 10 figured out by the Golden Globe nominations (with Social Network and King's Speech at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively). Despite some craziness with those two films, it made for an overall unpredictable year. Here's hoping this year stays crazy.
1. "The Artist"
A black and white, silent film directed by a non-American? Surely, you can't be serious. It's about to make its Los Angeles bow, but "The Artist" has been getting the most exciting raves out of virtually every festival's audiences, already winning a fair share of Audience Awards. The Academy even had a luxurious screening earlier this week, where Charlie Chaplin's granddaughters presented the film (for some reason). With Harvey Weinstein organizing this campaign, you can expect it to be a titanic player.
2. "The Descendants"
After "Sideways," I think it's fair to say Alexander Payne has some clout on the awards circuit. "The Descendants" is not *as* good as that film, but it gets pretty darn close. It has tears, it has laughs, it has George Clooney. It's a sad movie for people who don't like sad movies, and it's impeccably well-written. The Academy loves their great character dramas.
3. "The Help"
Late-summer sleepers tend to hang around throughout awards season (I know it's an unfair comparison, but look at "Little Miss Sunshine"). Still haven't seen it, but it managed to be a major crowd-pleaser for virtually all of August and into September, and Viola Davis is making a bid at Best Actress behind the film.
4. "Moneyball"
Certainly, "Moneyball" could go either way. But beneath its stand-up-and-cheer underdog story, it's a gruff character study with one of Hollywood's most charismatic leading men. That, and it's *smart* filmmaking with great visual and aural work. Its pulse just needs to be checked after the Golden Globes to see if it's really going to hang around.
5. "War Horse"
It's going to be a December to celebrate Steven Spielberg. "Adventures of Tintin" will do better business and will have more people talking, but if he can really pull off this stage adaptation and not go too overboard on his patented sentimentality (or maybe he should, given the Academy's tastes?) he'll be back in contention for the big show for the first time since 2005. Also, "Tintin" is animated, and thus handicapped.
6. "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
I don't get it either, but the Academy loves Stephen Daldry. If they can nominate "The Reader" for Best Picture, he can get any movie nominated for Best Picture. The big Christmas release will certainly help it out, and even if the critics don't like it, it'll probably find some way to get in.
7. "Hugo"
Definitely one of the more interesting stories of the season--what happens when Martin Scorsese makes a family movie? The raves are somewhat out of this world, and I fully expect at least one major critic (Ebert?) to do some heavy campaigning for Scorsese. The BFCA could go big for it, and depending on how big the conversation gets, it could even net Scorsese a director nom.
8. "Midnight in Paris"
If the Oscars had ten pictures going in 2008, I bet "Vicky Christina Barcelona" would be nominated. They like Woody, but recently they only like him when he does something different. "Paris" is his best, most sparkling, and original film in at least a decade. It needs the Globes to help it out (so start paying the HFPA off), but the well-timed Christmas DVD release should help people remember just how good it is.
9. "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"
I know, I know. I actually don't think it's going to make it, just because the first seven films barely made a dent. I just don't think the Academy cares about Harry, but Warner Bros. feels differently. And with "Part 2" becoming the third all-time box office grosser, shouldn't that count for something in the Academy's mind? You'll notice none of these other films are "big," so this could fill a "blockbuster slot."
10. "The Tree of Life"
Call me crazy, but every now and then when an important piece of film art comes out, the Academy will let it in to their mainstream club just to say they recognize artistic stuff. See "2001" (admittedly, more of a mainstream sensation), "Cries and Whispers," or even the Best Director nod for "City of God" (it must have JUST missed stealing a Picture slot). They've nominated Malick and his films before ("Thin Red Line," which is infinitely more accessible), so it's not a completely ludicrous suggestion.
11. "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
My favorite of the "question mark" movies still yet to be seen. David Fincher jokingly says there's "too much anal rape" for this movie to get nominated, but let's be serious for a second: It's a blockbuster novel, a director who they're starting to like (and who was clearly robbed last year), and will *most likely* have a huge female performance keeping it part of the conversation. It just needs some kind of foothold.
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