Best Picture Power Rankings: Week Four

1. The Artist (NO CHANGE)
It's the undeniable frontrunner, but I firmly believe it will "only" be the critics' darling. I just have a feeling this race is going to get very crazy going down the stretch. But it leads Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, and has a nice helping of SAG nods.

2. The Descendants (UP ONE)
The Globes come up waving Alexander Payne's banner. It could be a big year for him once we get out of the critics.

3. The Help (UP ONE)
It scored the most of any film at the SAGs (don't underestimate that voting body), and matched that with four Globes nods.

4. Hugo (UP ONE)
It tied The Artist for most Critics Choice awards, and I can see it running off with the Best Picture and/or Best Director Golden Globe. Voters are gonna go with their heart on this one.

5. War Horse (DOWN THREE)
I have no doubt it's getting in. But a semi-weak showing at the Globes -- no directing nod for Spielberg, no screenplay mention -- means it might not be the late-season power player. Or, that could just be the Globes being weird.

6. Midnight in Paris (UP THREE)
Oh yeah. Nothing makes me happier than seeing Midnight in Paris grabbing SAG Ensemble mentions and Golden Globe nominations for Woody Allen in director and screenplay. Like Hugo, voters are going to respond to it in an emotional kind of way.

7. Moneyball (DOWN ONE)
It's being very quiet out there, with a mention of Brad Pitt here, a screenplay nomination there. It got nominated for Best Picture at the Globes, even though it's very possible it could just be nominated for Pitt and the screenplay at the Oscars. Maybe it's my own blind love for this movie, but I still see it sticking the finish.

8. The Tree of Life (UP THREE)
There's just something about The Tree of Life I keep coming back to. It's definitely more of a critics' movie than an Academy movie, but is it "too big to ignore" -- not in the blockbuster way, but in a different kind of "event movie" way? People who are passionate about it are very passionate, and it could earn enough No. 1 votes to sneak in. Maybe.

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (DOWN TWO)
Completely shut-out from the Golden Globes, eh? That doesn't bode well for your Oscar chances, mates. Even The Reader had Globe nominations.

10. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (BACK)
I know it doesn't have a great chance, but I needed a reason to knock off Harry Potter.

Off the list: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2; Beginners