Surprises abound: Category-by-category reaction

This constitutes "part two" of Oscar morning - my knee-jerk reactions to each category, how I did in my predictions, and what makes me most/least happy on a category-by-category basis. A full write-up on the nominations as a whole will follow

Best Picture: No surprises, no worries. I need to see 127 Hours now, but the only thing that caught me up was I picked The Town over Hours. Hindsight's 20/20. Ebert says Winter's Bone is a "surprise." I knew it was going to be here back in November. Just saying.
My predictions: 9/10 (10/10 with alternate)

Best Director: Holy smokes. No Christopher Nolan. Is the man just not liked? Yesterday, people were calling David O. Russell the weak spot; turns out the Academy still can't figure out whether or not they should embrace sci-fi. C'mon, guys. The upside? The Coens are in, and we all know that makes me smile.
My predictions: 4/5 (5/5 with alternate)



Best Actor: I had Javier Bardem and switched him out at the last second. Drats. Surprised, in a good way, that they nominated the performance (I've heard nothing but amazing things). Also, let's not forget -- this is Eisenberg and Franco's first nominations, let's be happy some "New Hollywood" is being embraced.
My predictions: 4/5

Best Actress: Nope, no surprises.
My predictions: 5/5

Best Supporting Actor: No nods for The Social Network? Could spell trouble for the film without Andrew Garfield's nomination. However, he was booted out to let John Hawkes in, and considering I think Hawkes gave one of the one or two best supporting performances of the year, I'll nod and accept that.
My predictions: 4/5

Best Supporting Actress: I had Mila Kunis over Jacki Weaver, but it turns out Black Swan isn't the major player I thought it would be.
My predictions: 4/5 (5/5 with alternate)

Best Original Screenplay: No Black Swan? Really? What? Could have fooled me. At least Christopher Nolan gets nominated here despite the vicious Director snub.
My predictions: 4/5 (5/5 with alternate)

Best Adapted Screenplay: I put The Ghost Writer in my predictions mostly for fun, on the off-chance the Academy actually, y'know, saw it. Don't think they did. This category looks like everyone thought it would, and it's a pretty boring race. Unlike Original Screenplay.
My predictions: 4/5 (5/5 with alternate)

Best Animated Film: I just want to go ahead and congratulate myself for picking The Illusionist. Thank you.
My predictions: 3/3

Best Foreign Language: This category is always a guessing game for me in the nominations. It's very hard to know how the Academy will vote for this on a year-to-year basis. Let me just say that seeing Dogtooth here makes me unbelievably happy (devotees will remember it was on my yearly Top 10).
My predictions: 3/5 (4/5 with alternate)

Best Documentary: I just want this to sink in for a second: Exit Through the Gift Shop is nominated. Waiting for Superman is not. Just re-read that once or twice, because it may be the most significant upset of the entire morning. Superman was widely considered the frontrunner to win this award; Gift Shop is an incredible film, but its form and structure is so wacky.
My predictions: 3/5

Best Art Direction: Harry Potter gets in over Black Swan. Kind of surprising, given how intricate Sawn's mirror-scheme and theatricality is. But Potter is more showy and elaborate.
My predictions: 4/5

Best Cinematography: I predicted Shutter Island mainly because I thought they'd pick Scorsese's film somewhere. Turns out, I was wrong, and that film's complete shut-out is one of my least favorite things from the morning. The King's Speech seems like the odd man out, but I really like how Tom Hooper visualizes his films.
My predictions: 4/5

Best Costume Design: I always fail at predicting this category's nominations, mostly because if anything is going to be left field, it's this. I would never have thought they would nominate I Am Love or The Tempest, but those are actually pretty solid choices.
My predictions: 3/5

Best Film Editing: For those keeping track of shameless snubs, notice Inception  not on this list. Maybe as much as the Nolan directing snub, that one hurts. Also, remember that no film since 1989 has won Best Picture without also being nominated for Best Film Editing, and all five films in this category are nominated for Best Picture. The race is wide open, as far as I'm concerned.
My predictions: 4/5

Best Original Score: I actually did pretty darn well here, only missing 127 Hours for Alice in Wonderland, but the Academy really seems to like 127 Hours.
My predictions: 4/5 (5/5 with alternate)

Best Original Song: This category makes less and less sense to me every year. I really don't care for it.
My predictions: 3/4

Best Sound Mixing: I'm actually very sad they picked Salt over Black Swan, because the latter's soundscape is so experimental, so riveting, and so very unique. I'm also shocked Toy Story 3 is not here; this is usually a big category for animated films. Having seen all five of these in a theater, I can tell you I legitimately think True Grit's sound mixing is better than Inception's.
My predictions: 3/5

Best Sound Editing: Tron and Unstoppable are...weird choices, but given the penchant to favor big, loud movies, it makes sense.
My predictions: 3/5

Best Makeup: Another category that makes me roll my eyes, ever since they only had two nominations in 2002 because everything else was apparently ineligible. Barney's Version and The Way Back are totally left-field here, but I'm proud of myself for picking The Wolfman.
My predictions: 1/3

Best Visual Effects: Is this category three nominations or five? I honestly think it changes every year. I predicted a three-film category accidentally, so I'll just factor my alternate as part of my predictions and say I couldn't possibly have imagined they'd actually nominate Hereafter for this.
My predictions: 3/5

So how'd I do?
I only messed up Best Makeup, and my conservative choices helped me. If only I had realized how they wouldn't go for Black Swan or Inception in several places, but hindsight's 20/20.
I got 79% overall, which bumps up to 86% when you factor in my alternates.
My real victory was in the "Top 8" categories. Overall, I got 84% correct, but when you factor in my alternates I got a walloping 96% correct.