Even though my mantra was (and now of course continues to be) "the race is not over," I was ready to pronounce the Best Picture race a done deal after The Social Network's clean sweep of Phase I and Phase II. But it's been quite the week for Tom Hooper's The King's Speech -- it picked up more British Academy nominations than any other film this year (a walloping 14) and has now won the Producers Guild of America Award for Excellence in Producing.
Full Winners:
Picture: The King's Speech
Episodic TV, Drama: Mad Men
Episodic TV, Comedy: Modern Family
Documentary: Waiting for Superman
Miniseries: The Pacific
Live TV: The Colbert Report
Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Keep reading for some analysis and scenarios:
If I'm reading this race correctly, I think Tuesday morning will give us a couple surprises. The Social Network will not lead nominations (though it should get eight or nine), The King's Speech will carry the most with 12 or 13, and Black Swan and The Fighter will each earn somewhere between seven and 10. Inception will either disappoint, earning six or seven, or be second behind The King's Speech with 11 or 12. This will set up a situation that reminds me most of 2002, where Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, and The Pianist virtually controlled the nominations, earning 13, 10, nine and seven, respectively. Considering the race has focused around the first four vying for top awards, with Inception dominating technical categories, this seems very accurate to me. I wouldn't look for a "spread the wealth" year in nominees.
So with The King's Speech winning the PGA, we next have the Oscar nominees on Tuesday and the mega-Guild weekend next week to look forward to. Next Saturday the Directors Guild announces, and next Sunday, the Screen Actors Guild. I remember saying last week after the Globes that nothing mattered except the SAG. The PGA has suddenly proven me wrong. The thing of it is, the Producers Guild is the only other group that votes via "preferential balloting," the new system the Oscars adopted last year for Best Picture.
Even if The Social Network comes heavily favored into the Oscar ceremony, will it win the preferential ballot? I'm inclined to think yes, because it should show up in the Top Three of most peoples' ballots, potentially more than The King's Speech would. Of course, that's a question mark and a guess, and something we'll have to take into consideration when we cross the bridge.
Recent PGA winners:
2010: "The King's Speech"
2009: "The Hurt Locker" (won Best Picture)
2008: "Slumdog Millionaire" (won Best Picture)
2007: "No Country for Old Men" (won Best Picture)
2006: "Little Miss Sunshine"
2005: "Brokeback Mountain"
2004: "The Aviator"
For now, The King's Speech comes roaring back to life. I fully expect David Fincher will win the DGA next Saturday (anyone else at this point would be a total stunner). The broader, now infinitely more important question is, who wins the SAG? The Fighter comes into it with the best odds, having already won a Best Ensemble prize at the Critics Choice in addition to two individual acting awards at each ceremony. Something screwy will probably happen at the SAG (it holds true nine of ten times), and whatever that something is will impact the Oscar race significantly.
Here's how SAG has gone the past couple years:
2009: "Inglourious Basterds"
2008: "Slumdog Millionaire" (won Best Picture)
2007: "No Country for Old Men" (won Best Picture)
2006: "Little Miss Sunshine"
2005: "Crash" (won Best Picture)
2004: "Sideways"
The Crash win is what everyone goes back to; such a freakish thing was that Best Picture win that statistically we can only give more importance to the SAG to justify it. In 2006, Little Miss Sunshine scooped the PGA and the SAG back-to-back before The Departed swooped in with the DGA and, ultimately, the Oscar. Could The King's Speech have much the same fate, earning both while The Social Network wins the DGA? I feel like both of those films will win the Writers Guild, setting up a truly bizarre and frankly, kind of awesome race.
If The Fighter wins, things get a little more fractured. It will be easier to see The Social Network's momentum (if it wins the DGA) and less easy to see The King's Speech taking it down. Before the National Board of Review kicked off the season, The King's Speech was the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture. It tumbled far after The Social Network's rampage, pushing it from heavy favorite to feel-good underdog. The Fighter is, simply put, the scruffy underdog.
This race isn't close to over.
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