Of 'Kings' and 'Grit'

"Them boys, they'll think about the wrath that's about to set down on them."
-- True Grit

I want to make this very clear: True Grit will not win Best Picture. It may be the biggest surprise of the morning, grabbing ten nominations overall including Picture, Director, Screenplay and a wealth of tech awards, but it's not going to come from behind and win. I don't say that because it lost the PGA, and I don't say that because it's not nominated for the Directors or Screen Actors Guild.

The reason is: Best Film Editing.

I'll explain. In 1989, Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture without being nominated for Best Film Editing. In the 20 years since, no film has won without this nomination. In 2006, people were calling for a Little Miss Sunshine win over The Departed. The only Picture nominees to also be nominated for Film Editing were Departed and Babel. It was an inherently foolish prediction. This statistic, along with "The Directors Guild never lies when it comes to Best Director (unless it's 2002)," is one of the things that we Oscar pundits hold sacred.



Additionally, it shouldn't surprise us that The King's Speech is the nomination leader. By very virtue of its period locale, it has a leg up on The Social Network in categories like Art Direction and Costume Design. What should surprise us is that The King's Speech earned all three of its expected acting nominations; Social Network only earned one. The actors are the biggest branch in the Academy; it was one reason people pointed to Hurt Locker beating Avatar (no film has won Picture without a Screenplay or Acting nomination since 1932).

What's surprising is that True Grit is going blow-for-blow with The King's Speech in nominations. It's this wide, glowing support that makes me think, for instance, that Roger Deakins could finally win Best Cinematography, or that the film could legitimately win Best Art Direction.

So what of the "Fighter vs. Social Network" paradigm I set up after the Globes? Forget about it. The Fighter can still statistically win, but it missed potential surprise nominations in Sound Mixing, Cinematography, and Art Direction. The only tech nom it has is Film Editing (the all important one, yes, but it's not indicative of wide support. It does, however, have about the same combination of nominations as Million Dollar Baby). Mark Wahlberg missing a nomination (which can be blamed on a crowded field and surprise support for Bardem) also doesn't bode well for the film earning big wins. Don't count on Black Swan to be the surprise player, either. It missed Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Costume Design and Sound Mixing nominations. I think it will almost certainly win Best Actress, but that's about it.

So we once again return to the battle that's been waging since October: The Social Network vs. The King's Speech. One has the Golden Globe, the other the PGA. One will win the Directors Guild on Saturday; someone will win the SAG on Sunday. Both stand a chance to win the Writers Guild. In the last week, this race has been turned from a runaway win for Social Network to a thick battle for statistical points. When King's Speech earned 14 BAFTA nods last Tuesday, it was business as usual: the Brits usually go big or go home when it comes to British prestige pictures. With 12 Oscar nods, it's suddenly a powerful player in a surprising number of categories.

On a final note: I still approve of the Academy choosing 10 films. If this were a five-film race, I can almost safely say Inception would have been snubbed, and the five would have been Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and True Grit. By expanding to 10, they can include the big sci-fi blockbuster, the sleeper hit domestic comedy (Kids Are All Right), Danny Boyle's small character study (127 Hours), a big animated film, and a very small American independent film (Winter's Bone). I know people who follow this race may be moaning because these 10 were pretty predictable, but compare these films: they represent an incredible array of diversity. Like last year, the Academy has dipped into big studio films, small independent films, a variety of genres, different kinds of storytelling, and come away with a selection of films that I personally feel is very representative of the conversation about movies in 2010.

Now we know who is nominated. The game has evolved. It's not so much about pinpointing a group of films or actors; it now becomes about finding the one. We're now faced with questions like: Can Social Network win anything beyond Director, Screenplay, and Score? What will True Grit win? Does Inception stand a chance at winning anything?

We have one month to figure it out.