They are who we thought they were: BFCA recap

Thanks to anyone who put up with my dry run of the simultaneous LiveBlog/LiveTweet last night. I readily recognize there's simply not much to write about at the BFCA, much unlike the Globes, where something silly happens on a pretty constant basis.

But at the end of the night, we got to see pretty much the same batch of people who will show up at the Golden Globes on Sunday. The biggest question at this point is -- will those same people win?

At this point the race has centered on The Social Network, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, David Seidler, Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, and Melissa Leo. These "Big 8" categories are going to be pretty much all we get to think about until the Guilds announce their winners and the Academy announces their nominations, when we can start bemoaning and engaging with the tech categories.

So indulge me as I set up a couple scenarios. After the jump.

Let's say the Globes pick the above people (minus David Seidler, because they only have one Screenplay award), plus a Comedy Picture, Actor, and Actress. "The Social Network" becomes an unqualified frontrunner that will need to lose some combination of the PGA, SAG or DGA in order to make the Oscar race for Best Picture the least bit interesting. Colin Firth and Christian Bale become essentially locked for their awards; Natalie Portman and Annette Bening remain squared off; Melissa Leo becomes a frontrunner for Supporting Actress but I'll still declare that race "open."

Again, not a lot of excitement. It would become a race of qualifying "how" locked a category is as opposed to "if" it's locked.

But let's say "The King's Speech" wins Best Picture (as I think it will). We then have to grapple with the fact that the Globes have matched the Oscar only once since 2003 (in 2008, with Slumdog Millionaire) and ask whether "Speech" will make a play; it could win the PGA and Original Screenplay at the WGA, lose the DGA to Fincher, and The Fighter could win the SAG, creating a three-way race for Best Picture where The Social Network is still the statistical favorite.

This is my ideal situation in terms of a race I'd like to WRITE about. But, for the sake of fun, let's say David Fincher loses Best Director to Tom Hooper or David O. Russell. "Speech" and "Fighter" suddenly look a lot more interesting, even if Aaron Sorkin retains his Best Screenplay win. It would be nearly the same situation as last year (though a little different), when Bigelow/Hurt Locker won the Critics Choice only to lose the Globe to Cameron/Avatar.

Also, were Amy Adams or Helena Bonham Carter to win Best Supporting Actress, that race would suddenly fracture into a fury that the SAG could either solve or send in yet another direction. Which I think might happen. I can't see Christian Bale and Natalie Portman not winning Golden Globes.

Sunday's ceremony becomes, in essence, a game of waiting for surprises. Last night's BFCA awards only had a couple: David Seidler winning Best Original Screenplay over Christopher Nolan, proving "The King's Speech" isn't playing around even if "The Social Network" is winning right now; Melissa Leo winning Best Supporting Actress (but ANYONE winning that category would have been an "a ha!" moment); "Waiting for 'Superman'" beating "Inside Job" for Documentary, in a category with several VERY strong contenders with RABID supporters. That's about it.

Yeah, I went 17/25 at the Critics Choice, picking "True Grit" over "Alice in Wonderland" in two technical categories and mucking up Best Comedy, Foreign Language, and Documentary. But the idea that "Inception" and "Alice and Wonderland" are the only films that will win tech categories won't carry over to the Academy by a long shot, so we can just laugh and move on.

Like I said last night, Sunday night becomes an evening of mirrors: look for differences, look for similarities. If upsets are aplenty, we've got a race. If they match across the board, we may an anticlimactic month ahead of us. With the Oscar nominations coming out in 10 days, this is the time the race becomes less about getting into the category and more about winning the category.