The calm before the storm...

This weekend is going to be an awards frenzy, constituting the effective completion of "Phase II." The Critics Choice are on Friday and the Golden Globe are on Sunday. After they're over, we plunge solely into the Guilds, the British Academy and, finally, the Oscars.

But before start agonizing over the potentially pedestrian ceremonies this weekend, which I'll be LiveBlogging from here starting at 8 p.m. on Friday and Sunday, let's get a couple things straight:

This weekend is not the end of the awards season.


The Critics Choice are made up of a very diverse group of people who write about film on websites and talk about them on television. To put them in perspective, I'm just a syndication away from being a member (okay, maybe not entirely true). To put them in more perspective, Perez Hilton votes on these awards (that one is true). The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who pick the Globes, are comprised of about 100 people largely making up press writers for foreign markets (or something like that). The Academy, on the other hand, has approximately 5,800 voters from all branches of the film industry voting on the Oscars.

In demographics alone, these organizations don't line up. Neither do their choices.

In the past decade, which has seen the advent of the Internet as a major part of talking and thinking about the Oscar race as well as an increase in televised content and more publicity for regional critics' groups, the race as a whole has gone in increasingly divergent directions. Since 2000, the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Picture (either Comedy/Musical or Drama) has gone on to win the Oscar five times (Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, Chicago, Lord of the Rings, Slumdog Millionaire). Three of those years (Chicago, Lord of the Rings, Slumdog Millionaire) were "steamroller" years, where one movie simply won everything (Chicago DID lose Best Director to Roman Polanski). Gladiator also lost Best Director to Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic".

But 2008 aside, the Golden Globe and the Oscar have not matched since 2003. Since 2000, the Critics Choice winner has gone on to win Best Picture eight times. The only times it didn't? "Sideways" in 2004 (where "Million Dollar Baby" won the Oscar) and Brokeback Mountain in 2005 (when "Crash" won the Oscar). Part of this might be because the Critics Choice is usually a "groupthink" institution who I think vote based on who they think will win the Oscar, just so they can say they match it.

This year, there's not a doubt in my mind "The Social Network" wins the Critics Choice, just like I firmly believe "The King's Speech" is winning the Globe. If "TSN" wins the weekend, we may as well stop talking about Best Picture and move on to the acting categories.

There are a lot of other things in the air though: who's winning Best Supporting Actress? Is Natalie Portman going to win Best Actress both nights? Best Original Screenplay? The Best Ensemble at the Critics Choice? Will David Fincher win the weekend at Best Director?

I know people like to figure out who the frontrunners are, but THIS weekend creates frontrunners. If the same person wins both nights, we'll have a pretty good indication of how voting will go for the rest of the season. But that would just be boring.

Here's what most people see as the "front":
Picture: "The Social Network"
Director: David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Actor: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
Actress: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
Supporting Actress: ???
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"
Original Screenplay: ???

If anybody else wins, we have a game.

I'll have predictions up by the weekend, and don't forget, come here Friday and Sunday nights to follow my reactions and analysis as the awards happen! It's the only coverage you could possibly hope for.