Comeback Kid

David O. Russell has a pretty sour reputation. Since at least 1999's "Three Kings," he's been called a perfectionist in the bad sense of the word; prone to rage, impossible to work with, far too demanding, and unable to listen.

This has something to do with his pretty infamous on-set blow-up at actress Lily Tomlin while shooting 2004's "I Heart Huckabees."

But everybody loves a good comeback story, and O. Russell could do the unthinkable -- pull off a coup at the Oscars.

"The Fighter" is an inspirational, feel-good movie, despite its tough violence, drug addiction, and scenes of family members all but screaming bloody murder at each other. At times it's tough to get through, but that last scene is pretty darn rousing, and gives the film a terrific pay-off. And while the story of Micky Ward and Dick Eglund is a potent one, it's the context of the film itself that's part of the driving force of its almost equally miraculous awards campaign.

Mark Wahlberg, a producer as well as star of the film, has been fighting for it for years; it's his passion project, and it shows in both his performance and his interviews about the film. In Russell, he found a spirit who could give the film the demanding, tough edge without selling out to Hollywood melodrama. It could be, under his directorial guide, a hard-hitting sports drama with uncompromising, razor-sharp characters.

And while there's a lot to discuss about Russell's direction, and I won't do it here, suffice to say it's daring and careful. He chooses his moves with the camera carefully, he makes each moment feel lived-in and rough; the film itself is like a series of boxing matches.

In the six years since "I Heart Huckabee's" opened to lukewarm reception and negative publicity, "The Fighter" is like a dramatic comeback for its director, a chance for him to step back into the spotlight as a capable and unique storyteller. That's all well and good, but what of accolades?

"The Fighter" made its first big statement at the Golden Globes, stealing six nods including Best Picture (Drama) and Best Director. Russell beat out the Coen brothers, whose film didn't get a single mention, Danny Boyle and Ben Affleck. But the real kicker came this afternoon, when he beat out the Coens again for the Directors Guild of America nomination, alongside David Fincher, Tom Hooper, Darren Aronofsky, and Christopher Nolan.

Everybody loves a comeback story, and Russell's may not be the most dramatic the business has ever seen, but is it enough to bolster the stand-alone qualities of his movie to the top of the heap? If the Oscars were held tomorrow, David Fincher would be a sure bet for Best Director, and it would be a to-the-wire vote between "Social Network" and "King's Speech." But the Oscars are still nearly two months away, and the Golden Globes could push this race in a whole new direction. I'm still thinking, like most people, Fincher will win Director and "Speech" will win Picture on Sunday, but "Fighter" has good odds to win the Screen Actors Guild Ensemble and, were it to win the Globe and potentially one other major guild, it could upset Best Picture.

Like my post several weeks ago regarding "Black Swan," this is still a battle between "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech," but "Swan" and "Fighter" are very much viable candidates with strong box office, cross-over appeal, meaty performances and intricate directing. "Swan" has its own publicity storyline, but at the end of the day it feels too artsy, too horrific for an Academy movie (I say that in the best possibly way, of course).

"The Fighter," on the other hand, is the stuff Oscars are made of. See also "Rocky," see also "Million Dollar Baby." I don't think it matters who wins the Critics Choice on Friday ("The Social Network" will) and I don't think it matters who wins the Golden Globe on Sunday ("The King's Speech" almost certainly will). I think it matters who wins the Guilds and who runs the publicity gauntlet.

If David O. Russell gets his name out there enough, if Christian Bale keeps winning more awards and Mark Wahlberg can keep framing this movie like some kind of underdog, it can blow down the home stretch and give Best Picture an upset. It might even have to use Micky Ward's strategy a bit -- take a few blows, play it safe, but wear down the opponent. Wait for the opportunity, and then lunge. Wait for the game-changing moment, because it's going to happen. Sooner or later.