Breaking down lead acting

With the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards having all put out their nominees, we start to think about the "sure things" -- who can definitely be nominated, and who's still on the outside?  I'd still argue that the only of the four acting categories that may be sewn up at this point is Lead Actor (for Colin Firth's turn in "The King's Speech") and maybe Supporting Actor (depending on if Christian Bale can win any/all of the three awards above.

Today I'll try to look closer at the two leading categories based on the three awards above -- NOT on who's won the most critics awards -- and see who's poised to get an upset bid at an Oscar nomination.

Read on after the jump.

Awards Key:
(BFCA) = Broadcast Film Critics Association = Critics' Choice Awards
(HFPA) = Hollywood Foreign Press Association = Golden Globe Awards
(SAG) = Screen Actors Guild Awards

Best Actor in a Leading Role
 
Sure Bets
Colin Firth for "The King's Speech" (BFCA) (HFPA) (SAG)
Jesse Eisenberg for "The Social Network" (BFCA) (HFPA) (SAG)

Very Likely
James Franco for "127 Hours" (BFCA) (HFPA) (SAG)
Robert Duvall for "Get Low" (BFCA) (SAG)
Jeff Bridges for "True Grit" (BFCA) (SAG)

Strong
Ryan Gosling for "Blue Valentine" (BFCA) (HFPA)
Mark Wahlberg for "The Fighter" (HFPA)

Outside Chance
Leonardo DiCaprio for "Shutter Island"/"Inception" 
Kevin Spacey for "Casino Jack" (HFPA)
Paul Giamatti for "Barney's Version" (HFPA)
Javier Bardem for "Biutiful"

Explanation and Analysis: Colin Firth is the frontrunner to win this award right now, with Eisenberg close behind on the wings of "The Social Network." The only other actor to get nods in all three major awards is James Franco, whose "127 Hours" has been mentioned in all the right places but isn't generating the kind of buzz that, say, "Black Swan" is.
Bridges, last year's winner, missed a Globe nomination (but then, so did everyone involved in "True Grit," including the film itself) can easily score a second consecutive nomination, especially considering the Rooster Cogburn role is somewhat legendary (it did, after all, win the Duke his Oscar in 1969).  Likewise, Robert Duvall should get a lot of sentimental votes for "Get Low."
So that's five. It's the easy five, and the somewhat obvious five. But let's think of another formula: "Get Low" has failed to generate a lot of buzz outside of Duvall (and the industry loves Duvall, let's not forget this), but "The Fighter" has been building steam for the past two weeks in reviews and in box office. Wahlberg may have only scored with the Globes, but he's a previous Oscar nominee ("The Departed") and if his film builds into a serious Best Picture contender (which it's doing), he can scoop a slot.
And what of Ryan Gosling, whose film has had a lot of controversy about its rating (initially NC-17, appealed to an R), and whose performance has been universally praised. Gosling is a previous nominee (2006, "Half Nelson") and could take the fifth slot from Duvall/Wahlberg; conversely, if "The Fighter" scores bigger than "True Grit" with the Academy, Bridges could be out in favor of 2/3 of the Duvall/Wahlberg/Gosling combo.

Best Actress

Sure Bets
Natalie Portman for "Black Swan" (BFCA) (HFPA) (SAG)
Annette Bening for "The Kids Are All Right" (BFCA) (HFPA) (SAG)
Jennifer Lawrence for "Winter's Bone" (BFCA) (HFPA) (SAG)

Very Likely
Nicole Kidman for "Rabbit Hole" (BFCA) (HFPA) (SAG)
Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine" (BFCA) (HFPA)

Strong
Lesley Manville for "Another Year"
Noomi Rapace for "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" (BFCA)

Outside Bets
Anne Hathaway for "Love and Other Drugs" (HFPA)
Julianne Moore for "The Kids Are All Right" (HFPA)
Hilary Swank for "Conviction" (SAG)

Explanation and Analysis: If you look at the recurring names, this category is really only down to one slot -- it looks like Portman, Bening, Lawrence, and Kidman are all but sure things. Kidman is not a "sure bet" only because her film has failed to generate momentum anywhere, making her vulnerable.
Michelle Williams is the likely candidate for the fifth slot for "Blue Valentine" (especially if co-star Gosling sneaks in) because her performance has been labeled "raw" (always a good quality for an Oscar nominee).
But Lesley Manville, despite not getting precursors, could be a surprise nominee as the Oscars love Mike Leigh's films (most of the time...they didn't nominate Sally Hawkins in 2008).  Further, the "Dragon Tattoo" series have been popular in both novel and film form this year, and that buzz could spell the rare international nominee for Noomi Rapace. Meanwhile, Hathaway has buzz from the fact that she's co-hosting this year's Oscars, Julianne Moore could squeeze in if they love "The Kids Are All Right," and Hilary Swank is a two-time winner whose small film hasn't gathered a lot of ground despite strong reviews.
Yet this category seems more cohered than Best Actor, with Williams being the safe bet for the fifth slot. And while Best Actor has an obvious frontrunner in Firth, Best Actress will (like last year) be a duel to the death between Portman and Bening.