Analysis: Is "Black Swan" the Spoiler?

In all the pre-season buzz, analysts and bloggers formed a united front around a two-way race for Best Picture even before the National Board of Review started the avalanche: "The Social Network" - the movie of the now - would fight "The King's Speech" - a movie about the past - for the top prize. It was a classic battle -- the former American, the latter British; new age, World War II; respected director/writer, budding filmmaker; new generation of actors, esteemed pedigree; major studio fare, small domestic release. It would be, for all intents and purposes, a pretty typical rendition of an Oscar battle, with both films likely trading blows ("Social Network" was widely predicted to sweep the critics before it happened, a la "Lost in Translation" in 2003; "The King's Speech" has solidly been the Golden Globes film for a while) until Oscar had a final decree.

But, as always, some things happen along the way that you don't expect.

Read the rest after jump.

Yesterday, The Hollywood Reporter ran a story on "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" entitled, "Specialty Films Off to Strong Start at Holiday Box Office." In it, writer Pamela McClintock notes that "Swan" played in only 959 theaters nationwide last weekend, and managed to end up in seventh on the box office charts, beating new wide releases like "How Do You Know." Further, the Reporter made this interesting connection:

Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan is that rare specialty hybrid that is playing to two distinctly different audiences; urban sophisticates (many of them women in this case) and suburban genre fans, much as Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds did last year. It's a big reason why Black Swan is doing well in markets like Miami and Columbus, Ohio.

 You can read the whole story here.

People like "Black Swan." Over the last week, my Facebook has been lit up with status updates -- people about to see it, having just seen it, telling their friends to see it, angry that they haven't seen it, telling us they've just seen it a second time. Was I dreaming?  Was a psycho-sexual horror movie about a mentally collapsing ballerina becoming the most widely-discussed movie of the week before Christmas? I saw "Black Swan." I loved it. My full review is nothing if not glowing.  But when I saw it, I thought "this is fascinating, but it's incredibly artistic and very ambitious; it's not an Oscars movie."

Okay, well riddle me this: how does a horror movie masked as high melodrama, a character study dressed up in decadent visual experimentation, suddenly wind up with 12 Critics Choice nominations (the most of any film this year), four Golden Globe nominations (Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress), and three Screen Actors Guild Awards including Best Ensemble?

College kids aren't the only people responding to this film. And it's at least the third time this year I've seen people go bananas about a movie (after "Inception" and "The Social Network"), where seeing the film is a perennial part of online discussion, evoking the "you gotta see it so we can talk about, I gotta talk about it, I gotta share my thoughts with your thoughts" mentality that simply doesn't happen. It doesn't.

Now, I still think "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech" are brawling for Best Picture, with "The Fighter" suddenly looking like the appealing underdog. But "Black Swan" has suddenly gone from a curious achievement to something absolutely visceral outside of the screen. It's the dark horse of a race that's going to get a lot more complicated before it gets a lot cleaner. With the critics group waning and the major organizations and guilds starting to unveil their nominations, it now becomes about playing the race, about moving your film into position.

I take you back to 2004. "Sideways" won everything in sight for a few weeks with a few bones tossed to "Aviator" and "Million Dollar Baby." "Aviator" wins Golden Globe and Producers Guild. "Sideways" came back and won the Screen Actors Guild and the Writers Guild (an honor split with "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"). But it was ultimately Clint Eastwood, who won the Directors Guild for "Million Dollar Baby," whose movie walked away with the top prize. Will that be this year? Will "King's Speech" win the Globe, "Social Network" win Writers Guild and Screen Actors Guild, with "Black Swan" winning Best Actress awards (and who knows? maybe shocking everyone with a major win down the pipe) and pumping itself into a major upset?

Who knows where this is headed. It's going to be a crazy year.