1. The Social Network (NO CHANGE)
You would have to be a fool to say that “The Social Network” is not commanding this race, even with “The King’s Speech” poised to take the Golden Globe (a stat that could actually be used to HELP “Social Network,” given the disconnect between the Globes and the Oscars over the last decade).
2. The King’s Speech (NO CHANGE)
The race is now painted as the King of Britain versus the King of Facebook. Its reviews and nominations speak for themselves, but the one question that sticks up the most – is their a pointed difference between a love of Colin Firth’s performance and the film itself?
3. Black Swan (UP ONE)
Anyone who questioned whether this was just about Natalie Portman can rest easy – the film is fast becoming one of the season’s most talked-about films, and an Ensemble nomination at the Screen Actor’s Guild cements it as a fierce competitor.
Read the rest after the jump:
4. The Fighter (UP THREE)
Having now had the pleasure of seeing it, it’s the kind of tough, emotionally poignant, accessible, and ultimately rousing film the Oscars will love. That, and it’s impeccably and creatively filmed and performed. It could even win the Globe or the SAG Ensemble.
5. True Grit (UP ONE)
Despite not scoring with the Globes, “True Grit” has scored big in the holiday box office (it could potentially gross more than “Little Fockers” this weekend) and the reviews have been mostly crystal.
6. Toy Story 3 (DOWN ONE)
Pixar’s ad campaign is so smart, so direct, and so simple; “Toy Story 3” will almost certainly earn at least Picture, Animated Picture, and Screenplay nominees. It’s also one of the most (only?) heartwarming films in this stony line-up – which actually means it could do the unthinkable: give the crown to an animated film.
7. Winter’s Bone (UP TWO)
It’s now a major part of the conversation, regularly cited as one of the biggest achievements of the year on the heels of Jennifer Lawrence serving as its major selling point.
8. Inception (DOWN FIVE)
My lashing of “Inception” isn’t so much that I think it will do poorly – it should get nominated easily – but my skepticism that it will cross from the “technical” categories to the “big categories.” Now we have to ask, does Nolan have a legitimate shot as either a director or a screenwriter?
9. The Kids Are All Right (UP ONE)
I initially said “Kids” was the most vulnerable film in the potential pool of Best Picture candidates. I knew it would score big at the Globes, but it earned a SAG Ensemble nod over films like “True Grit” and “The Town,” the biggest signal of its crossover popularity.
10. 127 Hours (DOWN TWO)
The tenth slot is now where everyone is looking for a shocker. “127 Hours” has been relatively quiet outside of Franco’s consistency with nominations, but I think the combination of Franco (one of the year’s co-hosts), director Boyle (a recent Oscar winner), and screenwriter Beaufoy (also a recent winner) will give it enough of a boost.
11. Another Year (UP ONE)
I think if there’s going to be a “shock,” this will be it. On paper it looks like a strong candidate for nomination despite the minimal State-side attention
12. The Town (DOWN ONE)
It has a strong cast, an actor/director who’s bounced back to being a respected filmmaker over the last several years, and deep loyalties with a very traditional genre.
13. Shutter Island (BACK ON LIST)
I dropped it off last time before “How Do You Know” completely bombed, and if there’s justice in the world, it will overcome its bare mentions just on Scorsese’s good name alone.
14. Rabbit Hole (DOWN ONE)
It mostly seems like Kidman will be the film’s representative, but it has the tear-jerking, chamber-play quality that could work well for it in drawing votes from multiple communities.
15. Blue Valentine (NEW)
With all the NC-17 controversy and two Oscar-nominated performers (Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams) in demanding roles, it could overcome its under-the-radar independent nature.
OFF THE LIST: HOW DO YOU KNOW, THE WAY BACK
No comments:
Post a Comment