After a trio of very impressive wins today at Boston, New York Online and Los Angeles, the collective Oscar blogging can't help but point to The Social Network as this year's frontrunner, a film destined to sweep from here to Timbuktu, a film that everyone's destined to award. Sure, it's collecting praise not only for the film but for director Fincher and writer Sorkin, but also for its score and for lead Eisenberg, but this isn't the time or the place to claim The Social Network has the heels to win it all.
"The critics" are only one step in a veritable mountain towards the Oscars. One of the reasons people tend to overreact and think that only one film is going to sweep year after year is because most of the time we never have the fortune of seeing the nominees. While many groups publish their "runner-ups," we simply aren't afforded the luxury of knowing which films show up over and over again in consideration. The Social Network may be WINNING, but what about Black Swan or 127 Hours?
Each year there is invariably a "critics' darling," a film that shows up over and over. Some years that film goes on to win the Oscar (Slumdog Millionaire in 2008), some years it doesn't (Sideways ended up losing to Million Dollar Baby in 2004), and some years there isn't even a favorite (2006 saw numerous films like The Departed, The Queen, Little Miss Sunshine and Pan's Labyrinth draw a wealth of awards). Even last year, The Hurt Locker only barreled towards the finish line in the final weeks -- in "the critics" stage of the game it split awards with zeitgeist drama Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds.
So let's just say The Social Network is the frontrunner right now. Let's even say it gets the most Golden Globe nominations on Tuesday. It could still be closely followed by The King's Speech, True Grit, 127 Hours, or any other film vying for awards prizes. It could even lose the Golden Globe. It could still go on to win the Oscar -- any of those films could. Between the rest of the critics groups, the Critics Choice, the Golden Globes and the circuit of guilds (Producers, Directors, Actors, Writers) there are many, many steps left between now and February 27, and to even suggest that something is going to win is absurd.
That's not to say that we should discredit The Social Network. It has emerging talent in front of the camera, and veteran talent behind it. It's a movie of the "now" made for a culture of the "now" that's both stirred and frightened about where our society is going. It's an incredible film, and one that warrants a greater discussion in its own feature. It appeals to critics looking for a film about contemporary issues in a smart, engaging way, but is that what other groups are going to be looking for? Is that what the Academy cares about?
The Social Network is the frontrunner. Make no mistake. But whether it can continue to be a player, or will merely play itself out to a screenplay award and a boat of nominations remains to be seen. With each win it tightens its grasp, but it only grasps one piece of the puzzle. The Golden Globe nominations on Tuesday send us in a whole new direction. Brace yourselves.
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