1. The Social Network (NO CHANGE)
In case you didn’t realize, it’s won virtually every single major critics group to date and landed nine Critics Choice and six Golden Globe nominations. It’s the powerhouse.
2. The King’s Speech (UP ONE)
Colin Firth has won a handful of awards, but 11 nominations from the Critics Choice and a ceremony-leading seven nods from the Golden Globes make a bold statement that it could be this movie – and not “The Social Network” – that’s going to go bigger as the season goes on.
3. Inception (DOWN ONE)
Best Picture, Director mentions at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes keep it alive and kicking as we bound toward the Oscars, but don’t expect it to actually win many major awards.
4. Black Swan (UP FIVE)
While there was doubt over whether or not “Black Swan” would able to get over its eccentricities and critical divisiveness, its 12 nods from the Critics Choice (the most of any film this year) and its Best Picture and Best Director nods from the Golden Globes put it right in the heat of the competition.
5. Toy Story 3 (NO CHANGE)
With animation awards abounding and the Critics Choice awards putting it in the big race, it has the staying power to get nominated.
6. True Grit (DOWN TWO)
It’s now in a pretty awkward position: 11 Critics Choice nods and no Golden Globe nods. How can it score so big with one group and not at all with the next? It’s still very much in the game (the Golden Globes are becoming notorious for not being plugged into the Oscar sensibility), but it does force a few question marks.
7. The Fighter (UP FIVE)
“The Fighter” was one of a few films that could have gone either way – a couple acting nods and not much else, or a true player in most major categories. Landing a Best Picture mention at the Critics Choice certainly helped, but the real booster is a Picture and Director notice from the Golden Globes (sneaking in over the high-caliber Coen Brothers, Danny Boyle, and others).
8. 127 Hours (DOWN TWO)
It’s a little shocking not to see this nominated for Best Picture or Director at the Golden Globes, but its strong show at the Critics Choice and all the love for James Franco keep this one as a consistent player.
9. Winter’s Bone (DOWN ONE)
Jennifer Lawrence has catapulted this film. She’s being mentioned all over the place, and in turn helped the film itself gather steam. Its strong showing from the Critics Choice (it’s far too small to make a serious impression on the studio-heavy Globes) is a crucial step on raising it up.
10. The Kids Are All Right (UP ONE)
Getting three awards from the New York Film Critics Circle as well as four Golden Globe nominations help it feel more distinguished, but it still needs to strike big somewhere and make a plea as a film people actually care about.
11. The Town (UP THREE)
Jeremy Renner is the film’s only representative at the Golden Globes, but it’s still managed to hit some Top Ten lists, including a Critics Choice nomination for Best Picture.
12. Another Year (DOWN FIVE)
I’m not about to count Mike Leigh’s latest out entirely, but it needs some help.
13. Rabbit Hole (NEW)
Now that I’ve had the opportunity to see it, I honestly feel like this could be a big under-the-radar shocker if its campaign is handled correctly.
14. How Do You Know (DOWN FOUR)
I don’t know if its Golden Globes shut-out is because the HFPA didn’t have the opportunity to see it, or because it’s going to be dead on arrival. We’ll find out this weekend.
15. The Way Back (DOWN TWO)
It’s looking less and less likely this epic is going to hit, especially since it’s being managed by a small, relatively new company. There’s still a chance.
OFF THE LIST: Shutter Island
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