1. The Social Network (NO CHANGE)
Landing at number one on Sight & Sound’s Top 10 of the year is enough to jump-start a campaign, but having a clean sweep of the National Board of Review doesn’t hurt either. Winning Best Picture, Director, Actor and Adapted Screenplay is almost unprecedented for the NBR. If one movie stands atop the pile, this is it.
2. Inception (NO CHANGE)
Earning a crucial spot on the National Board of Review Top 10 list and scoring 11 nominations in the International Press Academy’s Golden Satellite Awards (even if that organization doesn’t really mean anything) makes sure this will be sticking around.
3. The King’s Speech (UP ONE)
It made a per-screen average killing in super-limited release over Thanksgiving and the reviews treat it as the annual British movie that the Oscars will love. It also landed on the NBR Top 10.
4. True Grit (DOWN ONE)
The earliest reviews are strong, but no one seems bowled over yet. That’s the price you pay of positioning yourself as a major frontrunner before release – the reviews will inevitably have a tinge of restraint in their praise, because they know you’re automatically in the Oscar game. A slot on the NBR top 10 keeps it alive and kicking.
5. Toy Story 3 (NO CHANGE)
This is going to be nominated. Pixar is going to try to manipulate as many heartstrings as it can to make a plea for the prize.
6. 127 Hours (NO CHANGE)
With nine Golden Satellite nods (second only to “Inception”) and Picture and Director nods from the Independent Spirit Awards, Danny Boyle’s tiny pic may not have made the NBR Top 10, but it’s going to get stronger as the season goes on.
7. Another Year (UP TWO)
It’s number three on Sight & Sound’s Top 10, it scored a mention on the NBR Top 10 and, most importantly, Lesley Manville won Best Actress from the NBR. That win is a stunner, and almost single-handedly proves that all this talk about it being “revelatory” may have something to it.
8. Winter’s Bone (UP SIX)
It rose up six slots for a reason. It has a spot on the elite Sight & Sound list, won Best Picture from the Gotham Independent Awards and Jennifer Lawrence won the NBR’s Breakthrough Performance award. All the festival buzz is finally materializing and it’s gained a mountain of momentum in about four days.
9. Black Swan (DOWN ONE)
Reviews are trickling in. They’re split, and a lot of people seem confused about what to make of it. No mention on NBR list, but Independent Spirit nominations for Best Picture, Director and Actress are a slow step to it staking its claim.
10. How Do You Know (NO CHANGE)
There’s no change because no one’s seen it yet. Until I read reviews, I contend that this will be a power player, because I trust James L. Brooks’ track record.
11. The Kids Are All Right (UP TWO)
Five Independent Spirit Award nominations help put it on the map. It needs to be a critics’ darling or get a major share of the Golden Globe nominations in Comedy/Musical away from “How Do You Know.”
12. The Fighter (DOWN ONE)
Christian Bale won the NBR award for Best Supporting Actor, and the film’s mention on their Top 10 means this really does have the potential to exceed its sports-film trappings. Now it just needs some critics to throw their weight behind its punches.
13. The Way Back (DOWN SIX)
If it strikes, it needs to strike big and strike fast. The December 29 qualifying run in Los Angeles will need fabulous reviews, a few Academy screenings and huge word of mouth.
14. The Town (UP ONE)
The National Board of Review put it on their Top 10, but it’s a crowded field for the mid-level success.
15. Shutter Island (DOWN THREE)
It’s great that Scorsese’s throwback thriller is on the NBR Top 10, but there needs be a surge to make it more than a curious outlier.
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