1. The Social Network
It’s the best reviewed movie of the year, it’s held strong over the box office (including a No. 1 spot in its opening weekend), it’s very plugged into the zeitgeist in a highly critical way, and director David Fincher and writer Aaron Sorkin are highly respected.
2. Inception
There’s no denying Christopher Nolan this time. After “The Dark Knight” was snubbed in 2008 for Best Director and Best Picture nominations, his sci-fi opus should remove all doubt that he’s a filmmaker worth taking seriously when it comes to the big awards. The biggest question will be how seriously the Academy takes “Inception” over the broader spectrum of technical categories.
3. True Grit
Yet to be released, the Coens have been Academy favorites since their triple-crown win in 2007 with “No Country for Old Men” (their “A Serious Man” netted the brothers two more nods last year, including Best Picture). Their serious work usually gets the most mainstream attention, and when they go gritty and arty, people take notice. Expect this to be a major player.
4. The King’s Speech
The gem of the festival circuit, and potentially the major arrival of director Tom Hooper (“John Adams”), it’s a British period piece based on a true story starring Colin Firth, a revered actor. It needs a major win to make sure it has the longevity to cement its overwhelmingly positive buzz.
5. Toy Story 3
Disney’s already mounting their campaign under one simple statement: “Why not us?” Invoking monumental wins for “non-Academy” fare like “The Silence of the Lambs” and “The Lord of the Rings,” they’re setting their sights on using “Toy Story 3” as the film to reward all animated films the crown they’ve always been denied. Only two animated films (“Beauty in the Beast” in 1991 and “Up” last year) have even been nominated for the prize.
6. 127 Hours
Danny Boyle is fresh off sweeping the awards circuit two years ago with “Slumdog Millionaire,” and his intimate survival drama starring James Franco has drawn its own early supporters on the festival circuit.
7. The Way Back
Peter Weir hasn’t made a movie since 2003’s “Master and Commander,” but he’s also been nominated for six Academy Awards. “The Way Back” won’t have its qualifying debut in Los Angeles until December 29, but logic holds that Weir could strike big with this grandiose epic.
8. Black Swan
Those who have seen it are calling it visionary; some are calling it far and away the best film of the year. But people have said that about Darren Aronofsky’s work before, and “Requiem for a Dream” and “The Fountain” kept the Academy firmly at bay. Those who love it insist this is filmmaking at its finest, but dark, brooding thrillers almost always elicit split reactions, even from an Academy that’s been more open to innovative works.
9. Another Year
Mike Leigh is almost critic-proof; the subtle British filmmaker gets more and more esteemed with every new movie he puts out. Some are saying “Another Year” could be one of his defining works, and with the expanded slate of Best Picture nominees, it’s not hard to see something small and intimate working its way into the mix.
10. How Do You Know
Don’t ever count out a James L. Brooks comedy until the nominations finally hit. Three of his five films have been nominated for Best Picture (one, “Terms of Endearment,” won in 1983); two of those three films had Jack Nicholson in the cast, and Nicholson is teaming with him again on this one. It could potentially clean house at the Golden Globes, poising it to be one of the few comedies in recent years to snag a Best Picture nod.
11. The Fighter
David O’Russell has drawn plenty of critical praise for oddball genre films like “Three Kings” and “I Heart Huckabees,” but “The Fighter” could mark his big transition into the awards circuit. A true-story boxing movie starring Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale, if it finds a way to the heartstrings it can find a way to the shortlist.
12. Shutter Island
Martin Scorsese’s atmospheric ode to the 1950s generated fair reviews when it came out, but over the course of the year has attracted plenty of fans who hail it as a sleeper for a nomination. It can certainly do it, and February releases have even gone on to win Best Picture the following year (“The Silence of the Lambs”), but it needs a strong campaign and more than one heavyweight critics group throwing some love Scorsese’s way.
13. The Kids Are All Right
The quirky breakout hit of the summer featured terrific performances that are sure to get nominated, and presented ideas about homosexuality that were warm and friendly instead of cold and challenging. But it’s still a small film in a crowded sea, and its late summer release will either propel it or hinder it.
14. Winter’s Bone
It’s a cluttered field for independent films right now, and it’s very unclear who will take charge of the awards circuit. Winter’s Bone has been on people’s lips since walking away with the Jury Prize at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, and its thriller roots, strong female lead and minimalist drama give it a strong chance to vault up throughout the season.
15. The Town
Ben Affleck broke ground in 2007 with directorial debut “Gone Baby Gone,” and “The Town” is likewise a true genre pic – with strong critical notices and square box office returns, it made a mark as one of the most well-rounded studio offerings of the fall, but it needs a strong campaign to make it to the big show.
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